Egypt Major General Dr. Salim Osama Statement on #H5N1 #Birdflu

Excerpt:

Because of the loose security in the recent rampant smuggling of animals, especially across the southern border with Sudan and across the Arab borders through Libya, and as this phenomenon is extremely dangerous to livestock in the Arab Republic of Egypt, as these animals are not subject to any tests veterinary, which may expose wealth Hayaniya in Egypt for Asabj and what the most and the most dangerous, has begun the General Authority for Veterinary Services in coordination with the border guards military intelligence and police forces to develop security plans to combat this dangerous phenomenon, which destroys our wealth of animal and cause heavy losses to breeders, also developed the plan ambitious future to ensure control of the disease coming to Egypt and are concentrated in: First, work on the maintenance and modernization of veterinary quarantines, which is currently working in different governorates.

Second, work to increase the capacity of veterinary Ahadjrbh championships.
Third, work on grooves Anchaoua to the border, especially in the areas of Abu Simbel south of Aswan, Safaga Red Sea Governorate and Suez in Suez, in order to facilitate the import of live animals from African countries, particularly Ethiopia and Sudan.
Fourth, to start immediately in the development of a scientific plan to develop and modernize Majarz in various provinces in accordance with international standards.
President of the General Authority for Veterinary Services.

Avian Influenza A Virus in Wild Birds in Highly Urbanized Areas

Abstract

Avian influenza virus (AIV) surveillance studies in wild birds are usually conducted in rural areas and nature reserves. Less is known of avian influenza virus prevalence in wild birds located in densely populated urban areas, while these birds are more likely to be in close contact with humans. Influenza virus prevalence was investigated in 6059 wild birds sampled in cities in the Netherlands between 2006 and 2009, and compared with parallel AIV surveillance data from low urbanized areas in the Netherlands. Viral prevalence varied with the level of urbanization, with highest prevalence in low urbanized areas. Within cities virus was detected in 0.5% of birds, while seroprevalence exceeded 50%. Ring recoveries of urban wild birds sampled for virus detection demonstrated that most birds were sighted within the same city, while few were sighted in other cities or migrated up to 2659 km away from the sample location in the Netherlands. Here we show that urban birds were infected with AIVs and that urban birds were not separated completely from populations of long-distance migrants. The latter suggests that wild birds in cities may play a role in the introduction of AIVs into cities. Thus, urban bird populations should not be excluded as a human-animal interface for influenza viruses.

-Click on Title for Full Research Article -
PLoS One
Josanne H. Verhagen1, Vincent J. Munster2, Frank Majoor3, Pascal Lexmond1, Oanh Vuong1, Job B. G. Stumpel1¤, Guus F. Rimmelzwaan1, Albert D. M. E. Osterhaus1, Martin Schutten1, Roy Slaterus3, Ron A. M. Fouchier1*
1 National Influenza Center and Department of Virology, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 2 Laboratory of Virology, Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Hamilton, Montana, United States of America, 3 Sovon Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology, Nijmegen, The Netherlands

Vietnam: H5N1 flu spread through the air?

Google Translation:

Wednesday, 06/27/2012 23:51

Research by scientists Netherlands and the U.S. found the H5N1 bird flu virus has been genetically modified and can easily spread from person to person through the air. This has raised concerns about the global H5N1 flu pandemic

According to reports published in scientific journals, a virologist at the Medical Center Erasmus University - Netherlands has done research on influenza A/H5N1 virus. Accordingly, the H5N1 bird flu virus has mutated and become a dangerous new strain, not only among poultry, it is also capable of spreading among mammals (including humans) through air gas. With this research, scientists fear the virus strain changes may occur in the natural environment.

A patient being treated for influenza A/H5N1

New flu strains, more dangerous

Together, another study on avian flu was announced by U.S. scientists shows that H5N1 virus can also be combined with other common seasonal flu strains to spread from person to person. This study has also created a strain of H5N1 influenza can spread through the air after combining with H1N1 flu strain.

Appeared in Vietnam since 2003, so far, 123 cases of influenza A/H5N1 in 40 provinces and city.Including 61 deaths in 30 localities. From early 2012 until now, the country has recorded four people infected with H5N1 flu, including two deaths.[See our 2012 Worldwide Cases Map on the right side bar] To date, the incidence and death from this strain is largely due to direct contact or indirectly with infected poultry.

According to Nguyen Van Binh, Director of Preventive Health - Ministry of Health, influenza surveillance activities are carried out regularly and has not recorded any cases of A/H5N1 flu spread from person to person in our country.

Mr. Binh said that the virus is possible to spread from person to person through the air. It is through droplets of respiratory secretions of infected birds or breathing air containing dust from bird droppings. In addition, this virus can spread through ingestion and contact with equipment or objects infected. People can also become infected by direct contact with infected poultry breeding, transportation, slaughtering and processing, poultry diseases and poultry products may be cooked or processed unhygienic.

Flu hazard when combined

Dr. Nguyen Hong Ha, deputy director of Tropical Diseases Hospital central concern: "If the virus is able to air and the wider diffusion than saliva ejected. One of the measures to prevent spread of flu is to wear a mask while limiting exposure to risk of infection through droplets of saliva.However, when this virus was mixed in the air, most likely risk is higher ".

According to epidemiologists, what the world is now the main concern is the risk of genetically modified H5N1 virus by recombination with other viruses transmitted from human to human or to become a global pandemic. In it, particularly concerns about the ability to combine with H1N1 flu strain H5N1.

Dr. Ha said that although highly toxic, but not everyone has the ability to sense with H5N1 infection that depends on the location of each person. Indeed, infectious influenza virus
H5N1 is very different. Many persons exposed to influenza A/H5N1 virus but very few cases.Currently, it is unclear what factors increase susceptibility to the virus.

Mr. Nguyen Van Binh said the combination of the virus is very common story, especially influenza virus. "There is a new strain of influenza can only occur for several months. This combination is considered the "nature" of the influenza virus, so the vaccine production to keep pace with the change of strain is very difficult "- Mr. Binh seen.

Experts recommend that epidemiological though this time not a seasonal flu but H5N1 avian influenza has appeared almost year-round with small outbreaks in many localities. This is a permanent threat to human health, by the majority of cases of influenza in humans is related to bird flu.

Indonesia: Wild Bird Can Recover from Bird Flu

JUNE 26, 2012

Researchers from the Erasmus Medical Center in the Netherlands, Prof. Ron Fouchier, a mutation in the journal Science describes the dangerous H5N1 bird flu virus. These new findings indicate the H5N1 virus easily transmitted to humans through the air.

According to LIPI researcher, Dr. David M. Prawiradilaga, in Indonesia there has been no news about the development of virus mutations.

"Depending on weather and environmental conditions. Conditions also affect bird health," said Dewi told VIVAnews on Tuesday, June 26, 2012.

David explains the impact of bird flu virus in wild birds and farm differently. Wild birds are still heterogeneous, while the farms have been selected so that the birds are relatively similar.

Based on "Research on Wild Bird Avian Influenza of 2007 Up In 2010" made Goddess, wild birds are more resistant to attack the bird flu virus. The resistance of the bird breeding judged inferior to wild birds. Bird farms have gone through the selection process for commodity trading.

Wild birds can heal itself from the attack of bird flu. His endurance forged stronger in the wild. But, this does not mean hitting all wild birds. There is also a wild bird that his endurance can not do self-healing.

David has not been able to provide data on paper in detail. Research on bird flu is still on the waiting list for the research could be released to the public.

Vietnam: The 11th Conference, provincial Party Executive Committee XII

DBP - The 11th Conference, provincial Party Executive Committee XII takes place in 2 days 26 and 27/6. Comrades: Lo Mai Trinh, member of Party Central Committee, Secretary of Provincial Party Committee Nguyen Thanh Tung, Deputy Secretary of Provincial Party Committee, Chairman of Provincial People's Council chaired the meeting.

The first working day (26/6), the participants focused comments on the draft report on the performance of tasks the first 6 months and key tasks the last 6 months.

Most participants agreed the issues raised in the report, and drill down analysis of the pluses and minuses in the process direction and development of socio - economic, ensure QP - AN.

The participants said that in difficult conditions due to inflation and disease of cattle, poultry outbreaks, but GDP growth was estimated to be 10.05% over the same period in 2011 was a success.

However, economic growth, but less stable. In the development of agriculture and forestry are still many potential risks to life, psychological farmers as PRRS, avian flu; the planning and planting, protection, contracting forest and forest land, especially in poor districts under Resolution 30a still confused....
-click on Title for full article-

Vietnam: Vinh Long vaccinated more than 1.7 million doses of bird flu vaccine

26-06-2012
Implementing vaccination campaign vaccine bird flu in 2012, from the beginning of the year, the veterinary station seven districts in the province of Vinh Long has the military been vaccinated more than 1.7 million doses of vaccine for poultry.

In the total vaccinated poultry, chickens were injected over 370,100 doses of 34% above plan and 1.37 million ducks and 88% planned dose. According to the veterinary sector, the flu vaccination of poultry is still later than planned. The reason the supply of vaccine from the slow route, the management and shot the duck on the forum also difficult.

For the prevention of bird flu in the province with high efficiency, coupled with the current propaganda promoting awareness to farmers, strengthen the management of the duck, veterinary also directed the provincial medical and veterinary stations of the district - the city strengthen vaccination monitoring and ensure poultry is properly and fully injected dose.

Nature News: Freeze on mutant-flu research set to thaw

But some fear that if more labs work on the viruses, the risk of accidental release will multiply.

26 June 2012

If you thought that the controversy was over, think again. Last week’s publication of the second of two papers describing how to make mammalian-transmissible forms of the H5N1 avian influenza virus merely closes one chapter of a smouldering debate about the risks of the research. That debate seems certain to reignite in the coming months once researchers lift a voluntary moratorium on the work.
-click on title for full article-

H7 in Mexican poultry, Indonesian H5N1 vaccine, Hong Kong eases flu alert, flu vaccine seizures

Jun 25, 2012

Large H7 outbreaks strike Mexican poultry
Animal health officials in Mexico are investigating three low-pathogenic H7 avian influenza outbreaks at commercial layer farms in the country's central Jalisco state, according to a Jun 22 report to the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE). More lab tests are under way to more fully characterize the virus's subtype and pathogenicity. The birds showed clinical signs, including gasping, lethargy, drooping wings, and fever. The outbreaks began Jun 13, sickening 587,160 birds and killing 211,242 of more than 1 million susceptible poultry. In one of the outbreaks 60,000 birds were culled as a control measure. Investigators are working to determine the extent of the problem, the source of the outbreak, and if any other pathogens are involved. The outbreaks are the first known occurrence of avian flu in Mexico, according to the report.
Jun 22 OIE report

Indonesia begins H5N1 vaccine production
Indonesia's health minister said the country has started producing its own supply of vaccine against the H5N1 virus, Bernama, Malaysia's national news agency, reported today. Nafsiah Mboi told Xinhua, China's national news agency, that so far several thousand vaccine doses have been produced, with more than 50,000 needed for stockpiling in the event of an H5N1 pandemic in Indonesia or to assist other countries where outbreaks are occurring. She said the vaccine is being produced in Bandung, the capital of West Java province. Indonesia leads the world with the highest number of confirmed human H5N1 infections and deaths—189 cases, of which 157 were fatal. In a 2007 protest against developing countries' poor access to drugs and vaccines against H5N1, it temporarily stopped sharing virus samples. Since then, global health officials and the countries themselves have developed plans for the countries to start producing their own vaccine, and in 2011 the World Health Assembly approved a working group's final virus-sharing agreement that improved the flow of the countermeasures to poorer countries.
Jun 25 Bernama story

Hong Kong steps down flu response level
Hong Kong health authorities have lowered the region's influenza response level from "serious" to "alert," 21 days after a boy from China who was hospitalized in the area was diagnosed as having an H5N1 infection, according to a Jun 22 press release from the Hong Kong government. On Jun 1, Hong Kong's Centre for Health Protection (CHP) raised the flu response level, boosting surveillance and investigating the source of the boy's infection. Officials placed the boy's close contacts under quarantine, and no more cases were detected. The CHP has classified the case as an imported sporadic infection. The boy is still hospitalized in serious condition. Earlier reports said he was in a pediatric intensive care unit at Princess Margaret Hospital undergoing treatment for obstructive hydrocephalus.
Jun 22 Hong Kong government press release

New Zealand study: Febrile seizures more common after Fluvax
A New Zealand study in Vaccine of the 2010 and 2011 flu seasons found that fever was more common after children received Fluvax, the vaccine linked to febrile convulsions in Australian children, compared with other vaccines. The researchers conducted telephone surveys of parents of children who received 4,088 doses of flu vaccine, and the response rate was 99%. Vaccines offered in New Zealand varied between 2010 and 2011. Fluvax, made by CSL, was not offered in 2011, based on febrile seizures identified in 2010 among young Australian children. The New Zealand team found a risk for febrile convulsions of 35 per 10,000 doses in children ages 6 months to 8 years within 24 hours of receiving Fluvax. No convulsions were reported following 3,223 doses of the other vaccines. Investigators noted that febrile events within 24 hours of vaccination were more common following Fluvax, and to a lesser extent, Influvac, the vaccine made by Solvay. The findings are in line with other smaller studies investigating fevers following Fluvax administration, though rates in Australian studies were higher. The study also found that the rate of febrile reactions in Pacific Islanders to be one third that of children of European origin.
July Vaccine abstract

Debate over H5N1 fatality rate flares again

In the latest chapter in an ongoing debate over the true case-fatality ratio (CFR) for human H5N1 influenza infections, a group of leading flu experts has written a Science article rejecting the idea that millions of H5N1 infections have gone undetected.

The debate was sparked by the controversy over publication of two studies involving lab-created H5N1 viruses with airborne transmissibility (both of which have now been published in full). Some proponents of publishing the full details of the studies argued that the true H5N1 case-fatality ratio (CFR) is probably much lower than the nearly 60% observed in confirmed cases, because in their view many mild or asymptomatic cases have likely been missed.

In February, Science published a meta-analysis by a team from Mount Sinai School of Medicine in New York City who said that on the basis of seroprevalence studies, the infection rate in populations exposed to H5N1 could be 1% to 2%, which would probably translate into millions of infections globally. The authors were Taia T. Wang, PhD, Michael K. Parides, PhD, and Peter Palese, PhD.

In the article published today, flu experts write that Wang and colleagues "overinterpret the results of seroprevalence studies and take too little account of underlying uncertainties. Although the true risk of death from H5N1 infection will likely be lower than the 60% of reported laboratory-confirmed cases, there is little evidence of millions of missed infections."

The article is accompanied by a response from the Mount Sinai group, who observe that the combined rural population of countries where H5N1 outbreaks occur is about 1 billion and assert that the tests used in seroprevalence studies probably miss many cases.

The first author of the article published today is Maria D. Van Kerkhove, PhD, and the senior author is Neil M. Ferguson, D Phil, both of the Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modeling at Imperial College London. Several other widely known flu experts are co-authors.

The main way to detect asymptomatic or subclinical cases is to conduct seroprevalence studies, looking for H5N1 antibodies in people who weren't sick but may have been exposed to the virus, such as contacts of confirmed case-patients, poultry cullers, or residents of an area where poultry outbreaks occurred. In nearly all such studies conducted since 2003, few people tested positive, if any.

The Van Kerkhove article says that H5N1 cases in both the numerator and denominator of the CFR are undoubtedly being missed, since in some disease-related deaths the cause remains undetermined and some sick people never seek medical care. But it notes that in a recent systematic review by Van Kerkhove and others, most studies found no seropositive individuals, and the seropositive rate in the rest was less than 3%.

That review and others have pointed up the limitations of seroprevalence studies and cautioned against overinterpreting low levels of seroprevalnece as signaling actual infection, the authors write. They note that findings are clouded by a lack of standardized serologic assays, variable criteria for seropositivity, and cross-reactions in people who have been exposed to seasonal flu or vaccines.

"Populations with no known exposure to highly pathogenic H5N1 viruses also manifest low, but detectable, levels of seroprevalnece, and it is unwise to infer aymptomatic H5N1 infection on the basis of such low levels of seroprevalence," Van Kerkhove and colleagues write.

For these reasons and others, the article says, the suggestion by the Mount Sinai group that millions of H5N1 infections may have gone undetected "represents an incautious overinterpretation of limited and uncertain data."

Even if the true number of infections were 60 times as great as the official number, the authors add, "natural H5N1 viruses would still be 100 times as lethal as the 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus. The precautionary principle dictates that we continue to assume that natural H5N1 infection in humans carries a high risk of death."

In a short response to the Van Kerkhove article, Wang and Palese of Mount Sinai write that four of the countries that have H5N1 outbreaks—Vietnam, Indonesia, Egypt, and China—have a total rural populaton of about 1 billion, and each year, "some fraction of those people is exposed to H5N1," with studies suggesting 1% to 3% have been infected.

"Recent reports of human antibodies or of T cells specific for H5N1 viruses support the 1 to 3% rate of infection or provide evidence for infections without detectable antibodies," Wang and Palese write. "Over the many decades that H5N1 viruses have been circulating in poultry, millions of people have likely been infected."

Further, they assert that serologic tests used in seroprevalence studies are more likely to underestimate than overestimate the number of positives: "The lack of sensitivity of H5N1 seroassays is well documented, as is the short period in which serum H5N1 antibodies can be detected in infected individuals. The high rate of false negative results from serum-based assays is exemplified by the rate of only ~70% seropositive findings from patients with polymerase chain reaction–confirmed H5N1 disease—and this is under the best of circumstances, when the time of infection is known."

Finally, Wang and Palese dismiss as "arbitrary" the statement that if H5N1 infections were underestimated by a factor of 60, the virus would still be 100 times as lethal as the 2009 H1N1 virus.

Jun 22, 2102 (CIDRAP News) –Robert Roos News Editor

Van Kerkhove MD, Riley S, Lipsitch M, et al. Comment on "Seroprevalence for H5N1 influenza virus infections in humans: meta-analysis." Science 2012 Jun 22;336(6088) [Full text]

Wang TT, Palese P. Response to comment on "Seroprevalence for H5N1 influenza infections in humans: meta-analysis." Science 2012 Jun 22; 336(6088):1506 [Full text]

Wang TT, Parides M, Palese P. Seroevidence for H5N1 influenza infections in humans: meta-analysis. Science 2012 Mar 23;335(6075):1463 [Full text]

See also:

Feb 24 CIDRAP News story "Debate on H5N1 death rate and missed cases continues"

Feb 9 CIDRAP News story "Undetected H5N1 cases seem few, but questions persist"

Africa: Workshop in Gambia with FAO, USAID, FVI, RESOLAB on threat posed by HPAI #H5N1 #Birdflu

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

A four-day sub-regional workshop on the management of equipment and basic metrology in veterinary laboratories commenced Monday at the Kairaba Beach Hotel in Kololi. The synergy is being executed by the Ministry of Agriculture, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), and the France Veterinary International (FVI).


Speaking on behalf of the minister of Agriculture, the head of veterinary services, Dr. Kebba Daffeh said The Gambia has been a key partner in West and Central Africa Network of Diagnostic Veterinary Laboratories (RESOLAB) since its launching in Bamako, Mali, in December 2007 by FAO and partners.


That network, he said was launched with the objective of improving the technical capacity of all nations’ veterinary diagnostic laboratories in the region through training, logistics and technical support, exchange of technicians and transparent sharing of information within a sustainable framework in response to the then emerging threat posed by Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza.
-snip-

Dr. Daffeh observes that given the limited structural and operational capacity of their veterinary services in the sub region to effectively deal with Avian Influenza and other trans-boundary animal diseases, particularly in the area of laboratory diagnosis, strengthening laboratory diagnostic capabilities is considered as a very important component.

For his part, the FAO country representative in The Gambia Dr. Babagana Ahmadu, said the incursion of highly pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 in Africa in early 2006 has attracted the attention of the international community on the weaknesses of Africa’s veterinary services and therefore promoted the launching of formal veterinary diagnostic networks as a mean to standardise laboratory testing methods, pool resources, streamline communications and share information.

“For three years now based on RESOLAB and EARLN annual coordination meetings’ recommendations, FAO and its partners have supported these two networks to produce and implement a specific roadmap for strengthening laboratory quality system,” he stated.

-snip-

The FAO local boss said the four-day training is meant to improve each participant’s skills in developing and implementing an equipment management programme that meets the requirement of the internationally recognised ISO 17025 standard for diagnostic laboratories.

He expressed hope that at the end of the training, participants would be in a position to develop and apply basic laboratory equipment maintenance and calibration programmes adapted to suit their laboratory environment and needs.

Swine Flu Deaths May Have Been 15 Times Higher Than Reported

Excerpts:
The estimate shows the difficulty in tracking the effect of a pandemic as it’s unfolding, Cecile Viboud of the National Institutes of Health and Lone Simonsen of George Washington University wrote in an editorial. The WHO, which was criticized for exaggerating the H1N1 threat, said during the outbreak that the toll would end up being “unquestionably higher” than that reported to it by national authorities.

“Laboratory-confirmed deaths are gross underestimates of influenza-related mortality because of the lack of routine laboratory tests and difficulties in identification of influenza-related deaths,” they wrote.
-snip-
Researchers led by Fatimah Dawood at the Atlanta-based CDC’s influenza division developed a mathematical model using data from 12 countries on flu cases that were diagnosed by a patient’s symptoms alone, and not by a laboratory test. They hypothesized that the risk of death is higher in some countries than others.
-snip-
“The study underscores the significant human toll of an influenza pandemic,” Dawood and colleagues said in an e-mailed statement. “We hope that this work can be used not only to improve influenza disease burden modeling globally, but to improve the public health response during future pandemics in parts of the world that suffer more deaths.”

Eighty percent of the deaths were probably in people younger than 65 years, the authors wrote.

To contact the reporter on this story: Simeon Bennett in Geneva at sbennett9@bloomberg.net

-click on title for full article-
By Simeon Bennett - Jun 25, 2012 6:30 PM ET

Estimated global mortality associated with the first 12 months of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 virus circulation: a modelling study

Publication, 26 June 2012

Summary

Background

18,500 laboratory-confirmed deaths caused by the 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 were reported worldwide for the period April, 2009, to August, 2010.

This number is likely to be only a fraction of the true number of the deaths associated with 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1.

We aimed to estimate the global number of deaths during the first 12 months of virus circulation in each country.

Methods

We calculated crude respiratory mortality rates associated with the 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 strain by age (0—17 years, 18—64 years, and >64 years) using the cumulative (12 months) virus-associated symptomatic attack rates from 12 countries and symptomatic case fatality ratios (sCFR) from five high-income countries. To adjust crude mortality rates for differences between countries in risk of death from influenza, we developed a respiratory mortality multiplier equal to the ratio of the median lower respiratory tract infection mortality rate in each WHO region mortality stratum to the median in countries with very low mortality. We calculated cardiovascular disease mortality rates associated with 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 infection with the ratio of excess deaths from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases during the pandemic in five countries and multiplied these values by the crude respiratory disease mortality rate associated with the virus. Respiratory and cardiovascular mortality rates associated with 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 were multiplied by age to calculate the number of associated deaths.

Findings

We estimate that globally there were 201 200 respiratory deaths (range 105 700—395 600) with an additional 83 300 cardiovascular deaths (46 000—179 900) associated with 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1. 80% of the respiratory and cardiovascular deaths were in people younger than 65 years and 59% occurred in southeast Asia and Africa.

Interpretation

Our estimate of respiratory and cardiovascular mortality associated with the 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 was 15 times higher than reported laboratory-confirmed deaths. Although no estimates of sCFRs were available from Africa and southeast Asia, a disproportionate number of estimated pandemic deaths might have occurred in these regions. Therefore, efforts to prevent influenza need to effectively target these regions in future pandemics.

Funding

None.

Video Interview: Ostrich Bird Flu Creates Uncertainty for Farmers S. Africa

June 25 (Bloomberg) -- Piet Kleyn, chief executive officer of the South African Office Business Chamber, speaks with Bloomberg's Mike Cohen about the impact of the bird-flu outbreak on the country's ostrich-farming industry. Ranger Gerebe, manager of the Cango ostrich show farm, also speaks.

[click on the title for the link to the interview]

The Evolution of Bird Flu, and the Race to Keep Up

Excerpt:
No one knows the probability that H5N1 would reassort with a human flu. All researchers know is that a hybrid between H5N1 and a human flu has not been discovered — yet.

“We really don’t talk about it, because so little is known about the probability of it,” said Dr. Smith.

This ignorance is nothing new when it comes to flu. In a commentary in Science, Dr. Lipsitch and his colleagues point out just how often flu evolution delivers us unpleasant surprises. Resistance to antiviral drugs like Tamiflu, for example, arose without warning.

Dr. Lipsitch doesn’t take much comfort from the fact that the engineered viruses are relatively mild in ferrets. The scientists can’t explain why their viruses are mild, and if they escape they might evolve further, becoming both easily spread and quite deadly.

-click on title for full article-

By CARL ZIMMER

Published: June 25, 2012

Indonesia strives to have sufficient bird flu vaccine

2012-06-25 13:44:57

Indonesian Health Minister Nafsiah Mboi said on Monday the country was attempting to produce bird flu vaccine to a sufficient level when the pandemic takes place.

The minister said that although the H5N1 virus attack had eased recently, the country needed to remain alert on the dangers as it has killed seven people this year in Indonesia.

Minister Nafsiah said that Indonesia needed over 50,000 units vaccine to be used when pandemic occurred and to help other countries.

"The process of production has been done in Bandung (the capital of West Java province). We must be ready when pandemic take place. We need over 50,000 units vaccines for it and to assist foreign countries," she said at the parliament building.

The minister said that thousands of vaccines had been produced so far.

Bird flu had attacked Indonesia, the hardest, since 2005, and then the attacks eased significantly. But, it has reemerged since last year, killing nine people in 2011.

Concerns on the bird flu attacks appear in the region following the reports of the death on the viruses in Indonesia, Cambodia, China and Vietnam.

Dead bird tested H5N1-positive in Hong Kong

2012-06-25 18:27:41

A dead scaly-breasted munia found in northern Hong Kong has tested positive for the H5N1 avian influenza virus, the city government said in a statement on Monday.

The bird was found on June 18. The scaly-breasted munia is a common resident bird in Hong Kong.

A spokesman for the city's Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department said the department would continue to conduct inspections of poultry farms to ensure that proper precautions against avian influenza have been implemented.

He also reminded people to observe good personal hygiene. "They should avoid personal contact with wild birds or live poultry and clean their hands thoroughly after coming into contact with them," he said.

EU - Ban on poultry from Thailand lifted

Excerpt:

This will have little effect on Brazilian poultry exports as the Middle East is their main market.

The end of the ban could cut prices for consumers at a time when they have been hard hit by inflation in other foodstuffs.

These are some of the main conclusions coming out of a new report from Rabobank " The Return of Thai Raw Chicken - Global players need to change strategy."

The restrictions on one of the world's major poultry exporters followed an outbreak of bird flu in the country in 2003.

Japan also stopped importing Thai raw poultry and is widely expected to lift its own restrictions. Brazil is set to be particularly hard hit as it is currently the major supplier to both Japan and Europe.

The 2003 ban saw the poultry sector in Thailand lose 350,000 tonnes of export volume out of a total of 500,000 tonnes and suffer from years of overcapacity.

However, in recent years the industry has shifted its strategic focus to cooked processed poultry meat, for which exports were allowed.

This strategy was so successful that the industry once again reached full capacity in 2010/2011, resulting in a first wave of investments.

The re-opening of the EU and Japanese markets could see Thailand's raw chicken production grow by 20 per cent by 2015.

The EU and Japan have long favoured Thai products for their high quality and low prices.

"Thailand's return to the market will lead to a new wave of investment in the Thai poultry industry as it might offer new growth opportunities," said Nan-Dirk Mulder of Rabobank Food and Agribusiness Research and Advisory.

In the EU, an expected influx of 92,000 tonnes of chicken on to the market is expected to significantly increase price competition between suppliers of raw chicken from Thailand and Brazil, and to a lesser extent Argentina, with consequently lower prices.

The EU market for fresh meat - and the local players involved in it - will be relatively unaffected because labeling standards make importing fresh meat economically unviable.

In Japan, the return of Thailand to the market will give traders more options to source products, again to the detriment of Brazil.

Japanese imports of Thai raw chicken are set to reach up to 150,000 tonnes within a few years, with imports from Brazil falling from 350,000 tonnes to 250,000 tonnes and lower prices all round, Rabobank believes.

-snip-

Meanwhile, despite the boost from the lifting of the EU ban, Thailand needs to focus on reducing risks in the industry, Rabobank says.

The bird flu outbreak starkly illustrated the risks of being mostly focused on raw meat and the increased proportion of cooked meat products will help in the event that bird flu returns to Thailand, a country where the disease is endemic, according to the Rabobank report.

Currently, its export profile is 95 per cent cooked meat to five per cent raw meat which will move to 70 per cent cooked to 30 per cent raw if it can regain its position in Japan and the EU.

But a recurrence of bird flu and subsequent import bans from the EU and Japan could mean the industry will have 20 per cent overcapacity at a stroke.

"A well-balanced approach to dealing with the constantly present possibility of an avian influenza outbreak is the base for a strong international position," said Mulder.

"An ongoing emphasis on biosecurity will be key."

To lower its risk, Rabobank believes the Thai poultry industry could:

Bangladesh sanctions egg imports

Bangladesh has allowed the import of eggs throughout the month of June in an attempt to level the price which has increased by 50% over the year. The import policy order says eggs will have to be imported from countries which are free from avian influenza and other similar diseases. Bangladesh Poultry Industry Coordination Committee Convenor, Moshiur Rahman said the government will have to ensure that no new diseases come to the country with the imported eggs. 'Since August last year we knew that egg production will see a massive gap. Had the government allowed us parent stock of chicken and vaccines, the situation might not have arisen,' he added. Bangladesh mainly imports eggs from India which, Bangladesh claims, is not out of danger of bird flu virus. The monthly demand of eggs in the country is between 600 - 650 million pieces.

H5N1 Mutation Guide Goes Online

by David Malakoff on 22 June 2012, 4:01 PM

As a controversial study of the H5N1 avian influenza virus published online today in Science shows, researchers are keenly interested in how mutations in the virus' genes might enable it to become transmissible in humans. Now, a new H5N1 Genetic Changes Inventory is available online to help scientists keep tabs on how the virus is evolving and spot mutations that might spell trouble.

"We thought it would be useful for people to know what changes they should be looking for," says Nancy Cox, an influenza researcher at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Atlanta, who helped assemble the inventory with researchers from around the world. "It's not so much that we want people to focus on one mutation or another, but to know if there are combinations that confer certain properties" that might threaten humans, such the ability to move through the air from person to person.

The ability to quickly recognize emerging genetic changes is "essential" for robust public health surveillance, notes a statement from the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Influenza Reference and Research at CDC, which will maintain and update the inventory. The color-coded list identifies documented mutations in key viral genes, along with literature citations and a description of how the mutation is believed to change biological function. For instance, notations next to the mutations described in today's Science paper, from a laboratory led by Ron Fouchier of Erasmus MC in the Netherlands, notes that they make the "H5 virus transmissible among ferrets."

Cox says discussion of creating and publishing the inventory began before controversy emerged late last year over publishing Fouchier's paper. "We wanted to be more organized," she says, "about how we provided critical information to our surveillance partners as to what changes they should be looking for."

CDC: H5N1 Genetic Changes Inventory: A Tool for Influenza Surveillance and Preparedness

Background
Since highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 viruses were first identified in humans in 1997, they
have evolved rapidly and have formed multiple distinct genetic clades. During this time HPAI viruses have
caused millions of deaths among birds and over six hundred deaths in humans.
Laboratory studies have implicated convergent evolution of certain molecular determinants for
pathogenicity and host specificity for influenza viruses in nature; however, our understanding of the precise
molecular determinants required for transmissibility and severe disease in mammals remains incomplete.
It is believed that there are likely to be multiple evolutionary pathways that would increase mammalian
transmissibility of avian influenza viruses, including HPAI H5N1 viruses.
In light of the expanding host range, geographic spread, and the effect of co-circulation of heterogeneous
viruses on interspecies transmission of H5N1 viruses, it is critical that enhanced approaches to influenza
surveillance are maintained. Early detection of the natural emergence of genetic changes that may enhance
adaptation of HPAI H5N1 viruses for humans and/or other mammals or may impair antiviral interventions
is an essential component of this effort. The WHO Collaborating Center for Influenza Reference and
Research at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, with input from many influenza
subject matter experts from around the world, has developed an inventory of amino acid mutations in
H5N1 viruses that is intended to be used by the influenza surveillance and research community as a tool to
inform the influenza knowledge base for surveillance and public health preparedness.

Continued - Click on Title for Link

6-21-2012
Version 1.0

Science Magazine Special Issue #H5N1

2012
This special issue is available to AAAS members and institutional subscribers. As a service to the community, AAAS is also making these articles free to the public.

Introduction

The publication in this issue of these research papers on the airborne tranimssion of H5N1 marks the end of 8 months of controversy over whether some of the data, now freely accessible, should be withheld in the public interest.

POLICY FORUM

Benefits and Risks of Influenza Research: Lessons Learned

A. Fauci & F. Collins

Public concern over two H5N1 influenza manuscripts has triggered intense discussion on dual use research and the way forward.

REPORT

Airborne Transmission of Avian Influenza a/H5N1 Virus Between Ferrets

S. Herfst et al.

Avian flu can acquire the capacity for airborne transmission between mammals without recombination in an intermediate host.

REPORT

The Potential for Respiratory Droplet Transmissible A/H5N1 Influenza Virus to Evolve in a Mammalian Host

C. A. Russell et al.

Some natural influenza viruses need only three amino acid substitutions to acquire airborne transmissibility between mammals.

PERSPECTIVE

Regulating the Boundaries of Dual-Use Research

M. Frankel

Government must balance many competing interests in its regulation of science.

POLICY FORUM

Implementing the New U.S. Dual-Use Policy

C. D. Wolinetz

Recent dual use provisions from the federal government may provide more questions than answers.

PERSPECTIVE

Securing Medical Research: A Cybersecurity Point of View

B. Schneier

Lessons from cryptography illustrate that neither secrecy measures, such as deleting technicaldetails, nor national solutions, such as export controls, will work for biological research data.

POLICY FORUM

Evolution, Safety, and Highly Pathogenic Influenza Viruses

M. Lipsitch

Future experiments with virulent pathogens whose accidental or deliberate release could lead to extensive spread in human populations should be limited by explicit risk-benefit considerations.

POLICY FORUM

Influenza: Options to Improve Pandemic Preparation

R. Rappuoli

While we wait for the development of a universal influenza vaccine, we have practical options to reduce the risk of massglobal mortality from the next influenza pandemic.

Report Abstract: Airborne Transmission of Influenza A/H5N1 Virus Between Ferrets

Science 22 June 2012:
Vol. 336 no. 6088 pp. 1534-1541
DOI: 10.1126/science.1213362

REPORT
Airborne Transmission of Influenza A/H5N1 Virus Between Ferrets
Sander Herfst1, Eefje J. A. Schrauwen1, Martin Linster1, Salin Chutinimitkul1, Emmie de Wit1,*, Vincent J. Munster1,*, Erin M. Sorrell1, Theo M. Bestebroer1, David F. Burke2, Derek J. Smith1,2,3, Guus F. Rimmelzwaan1, Albert D. M. E. Osterhaus1, Ron A. M. Fouchier1,†

ABSTRACT
Highly pathogenic avian influenza A/H5N1 virus can cause morbidity and mortality in humans but thus far has not acquired the ability to be transmitted by aerosol or respiratory droplet (“airborne transmission”) between humans. To address the concern that the virus could acquire this ability under natural conditions, we genetically modified A/H5N1 virus by site-directed mutagenesis and subsequent serial passage in ferrets. The genetically modified A/H5N1 virus acquired mutations during passage in ferrets, ultimately becoming airborne transmissible in ferrets. None of the recipient ferrets died after airborne infection with the mutant A/H5N1 viruses. Four amino acid substitutions in the host receptor-binding protein hemagglutinin, and one in the polymerase complex protein basic polymerase 2, were consistently present in airborne-transmitted viruses. The transmissible viruses were sensitive to the antiviral drug oseltamivir and reacted well with antisera raised against H5 influenza vaccine strains. Thus, avian A/H5N1 influenza viruses can acquire the capacity for airborne transmission between mammals without recombination in an intermediate host and therefore constitute a risk for human pandemic influenza.

Influenza: Five questions on H5N1

21 June 2012

Scientists now know that the deadly bird flu virus is capable of causing a human pandemic. That makes tackling the remaining unknowns all the more urgent.

The biology of the H5N1 avian influenza virus is rife with paradoxes. The virus is widespread, but hard to detect. It kills more than half of the people known to be infected, but thousands of those exposed have no apparent problems. It seems to be just a few mutations away from gaining the ability to spread from person to person, but despite more than 16 years of fast-paced evolution, it has failed to do so.

This week saw the publication of the second of two papers identifying mutations that give H5N1 the ability to spread through the air between ferrets. The papers, the latest1 from a group led by Ron Fouchier at the Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, and the earlier one2 by Yoshihiro Kawaoka at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and his colleagues, have been controversial because they offer what some see as a recipe for disaster — that they increase the risk of accidental or intentional release of a deadly human pathogen. But what is most unsettling about them, say many in the flu community, is the evidence they provide that the wild virus could spark a pandemic on its own. That threat makes the outstanding scientific mysteries about this tiny RNA virus — its genome just 14,000 letters long — even more pressing. Here are five of the biggest puzzles, and what researchers are doing to solve them.

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Bird Flu Paper Is Published After Debate

By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr.
Published: June 21, 2012

The more controversial of two papers describing how the lethal H5N1 bird flu could be made easier to spread was published Thursday, six months after a scientific advisory board suggested that the papers’ most potentially dangerous data be censored.

The paper, by scientists at Erasmus Medical Center in the Netherlands, identified five mutations apparently necessary to make the bird flu virus spread easily among ferrets, which catch the same flus that humans do.

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Egypt: Production Of The First Egyptian-Made Vaccine For The Treatment Of Bird Flu

06-12-2012

Announced Minister of State for Scientific Research, Egyptian Dr. Nadia Zachary for production of the first Egyptian-made vaccine for bird flu .. Confirmed that her country has become a technology for the manufacture of vaccines for avian flu with any strain may appear in Egypt or mutate.

Zachary said in a press conference held today that the vaccine has Pthouderh and manufacturing research team from the Egyptian National Center for Research .. Noting that the bird flu vaccine has passed the assessment tests a degree which makes it 95 percent better than any vaccine imported. She added that this vaccine will be put on the market during the month .. Pointing out that the need for Egypt from bird flu vaccine is estimated at about one billion and 250 million doses to combat this virus, especially as Egypt is one of the first countries in the world in the number of foci of infection with the virus in poultry and human cases of the virus and the number of deaths.

And concluded to say that there is a radical change in strategy of the state after the revolution of January 25 ..Shown that the Egyptian government has become attached particular importance to scientific research by increasing the budget for scientific research for the current fiscal year to 5.3 billion pounds.

Egypt: Veterinary sector: billion doses per year for bird flu

Monday, June 18, 2012 - 14:13

Said Dr. Osama Sulayem, Chairman of the Veterinary Services, Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, Egypt might need more than one billion per year and 300 thousand doses of resistance to bird flu.

He said a sound that has to be coming together all until we rise with wealth poultry suffered by Egypt in the past few days indicating that the disease may pose a risk to the Egyptian economy as well as on human health and the doses found in Egypt is not enough for the occurrence of any disease comes suddenly and must be vaccine development is located to suit with the disease, which happens to keep poultry.

Indonesia: Bird Flu In Humans Occurs in Bengkulu and NTB

15 June 2012

Jakarta, InfoPublik – During January to May 2012, the number of cases of avian influenza (AI) reported as many as six cases with six deaths. Additionally this year, the province of Bengkulu and NTB reported cases of AI in humans. This was said by the Acting / Deputy Minister of Health Ali Ghufron Mukti in a press release Public Puskom Strathmore on Tuesday (12/6). But the case continues to occur despite Indonesia most people including medical professionals, believe that the Influenza in Indonesia is a mild disease that self-limiting disease. So far, Indonesia has not had a specific influenza immunization program. “Although influenza vaccination to existing ones, but still given the seasonal nature Indonesia is only for people who travel to Saudi Arabia to perform Hajj,” he said. Based on surveillance data Influenza Like Illness (ILI) in 24 health centers and the Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI) in 30 hospitals Indonesia is reported to the National Institute of Health Research and Development (2012), showed an increase of influenza cases from October 2011 until February 2012. Cases of Influenza H5N1 found in poultry in 33 provinces in Indonesia. Since first reported in July 2005, the cumulative number of cases reached 189 with FB 157 deaths. Stated, in Indonesia, mortality and morbidity due to FB is relatively low compared with other infectious diseases such as tuberculosis and malaria. However, FB threats to human security is greater than any other infectious disease, because there is the possibility of mutation and initiate a pandemic influenza. In addition, when the influenza pandemic occurs, the impact will affect all countries in the world. It is estimated there will be deaths in large numbers, drugs, inadequate social and economic disruption. Therefore, each state must prevent that happening and it’s not always anticipate. We remember the pandemic severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2002-2003 and Pandemic Influenza H1N1 in 2009. The second pandemic has an impact not only health but also on economic and social aspects, he said. Ali Ghufron stated, the Government of Indonesia has taken several steps influenza pandemic preparedness and response, including the strengthening of 100 bird flu referral hospitals, strengthening epidemiology and virology laboratories, the application of sentinel and routine surveillance, vaccine development, the implementation of the ecology and transmission, clinical spectrum, management of disease and molecular genetics, training, build coordination and distribution logistics arrangements as well. “Indonesia and other developing countries have also succeeded in realizing the fair, transparent, and equitable framework in the WHO system,” he said. He explained that the framework of the fair, transparent, and equitable framework that established the World Health Assembly on the 64th WHA in 2011 in 64th WHA resolution. “This framework guarantees the right of all developing countries to gain equal access to affordable vaccines, antiviral, and diagnostic kit for influenza pandemic, and assisted in their vaccine production capacity,” concludes Ali Ghufron.