[Avian flu] to 60 percent抑ERE out, the number of infected people infected and 15 national research to one estimate

2008.12.7 21:13

If the cause Japan 170000-64 million people are estimated to die with the "avian flu" in the country after the outbreak of the people to refrain from going out, the number of patients can significantly reduce the estimate, National Institute of Infectious Diseases Chief of the Dainichi HAJIKI出SHITA Koji.

試算では、国内の新型インフルエンザ患者第１号を「東京の八王子市在住、丸の内で勤務するビジネスマン」と想定。 According to estimates, the country's first case of avian flu, "lives in Hachioji, Tokyo, working in the Marunouchi business" and expected. 海外出張先で新型インフルエンザに感染して帰国したが気付かず２日出勤した－と仮定し、学校閉鎖や企業の事業縮小などの感染拡大防止策を取る場合と、何も対策を講じない場合とで、首都圏で感染者の増加がどう違うかをコンピューターによるシミュレーションで比べた。 On the road overseas infected with avian flu has returned to work two days were unaware - and the assumption that schools and businesses closed down the business and take measures to prevent spread of the disease if, when and nonresponsive The increase of infected people in the metropolitan area, what a difference compared by computer simulation.

すると感染拡大防止策を講じ、電車の利用など外出者が普段の６割程度にまで減った場合、国内第１号の患者帰国から１週間後（第１号が感染１０日目）の感染者数は８１５４人と、何もしなかった場合の想定１２万６５９１人のおよそ１５分の１に抑えられるとの結果が出た。 Then take measures to prevent infections, such as the use of trains out of the ordinary until reduced to about 60 percent of cases, the patient returned to No. 1 in Japan a week after (the first of the first 10 days of infection) of the infected person 8154 The number of people, and if I did not expect 126,591 people to be around 15 to one, and the results were kept.

また同じ試算で、何も対策をしない場合、発生２カ月後には首都圏で住民の５２％が感染するとの結果がでた。 In the same trial, and if you do not measure anything, occurred after two months in the metropolitan area, 52 percent of the population and the results used to be infected. これは国の想定の２倍にあたる。 This is double the country will assume. しかし「外出制限により例年のインフルエンザの感染率と同程度に抑えることができる可能性がある」（大日さん）。 But "due to limitations outside of the annual flu and the infection rate can be kept to the extent possible" (Dainichi's).

If pandemic flu occurs there is no human immunity to the pandemic (epidemic) is said to be infected with one of the pillars of measures to expand the road is limited. 厚生労働省の新型インフルエンザ対策ガイドライン改定案は、国内で患者が１人でも確認されたら、発生した都道府県単位で学校を休校にし、コンサートなどのイベントの開催や混雑する公共交通機関の利用の自粛を要請することを盛り込んでいる。 The ministry revised the new draft guidelines for flu, in one patient when you check in, caused by the state to close a school, concerts and other events to congestion and public transport to refrain from the use of Are requested to incorporate.

大日さんは「備蓄のワクチンや抗インフルエンザ薬が新型インフルエンザに確実に効くのかどうかはわからない中で、外出を控えることが唯一、確実な感染防止策。出勤を控えるには、欠勤ではなく在宅勤務と見なすなど、対応を決めておくことが大切だ」と話している。 Dainichi, "vaccines and stockpiling anti-flu drug, infallible new type of flu Whether in the only road to refrain from certain measures to prevent infection. To refrain from work, at home rather than absenteeism Count as work, and support is important to decide, "he said.