Avian flu still likely to strike in humans, says Welsh expert

Aug 31 2010 by David Williamson, Western Mail

THE threat of bird flu crossing over to humans and igniting a pandemic remains real, one of Wales’ leading experts on health and disaster management has claimed.

Alan Hawley, who until recently was the UK’s Director General of Army Medical Services, said climate change and international food scarcity has the potential to spread social and economic chaos across the globe.

His comments follow the decision of the Assembly Government to reduce the surveillance of live wild birds for avian influenza. Instead, attention will be focused on dead birds.

However, Prof Hawley said bird flu is not the greatest threat to Wales and the world.

The former major general, who is now the University of Glamorgan’s professor of disaster studies, described the Assembly Government’s decision to narrow the field of monitoring as “quite sensible”.

He said: “I think, scientifically, you have to constantly re-prioritise what you are doing. We have got a resource issue and hard decisions have to be made; I’m really glad I’m not a politician.”

But he said the threat of avian flu mutating into a form which could be passed between people “absolutely” remained on the radar.

He said: “The one we worry about is the avian epidemic where it moves from birds to the human species. I think that’s likely to happen, just being dispassionate about it.

“It will be bad enough to give us a jolt, but the technology and the modern public health techniques will allow us to cope with it.”

Describing his greatest fears, he said: “What really worries me is the climate change issue and the associated population-food mismatch. If you put these together I just don’t see a future of increasing political instability.

“That’s not good for any of us.”

Prof Hawley said it is a mistake to expect a future flu pandemic to claim 50 million lives, as took place with the 1918 Spanish flu outbreak.

He said: “If you think about it, it’s a different world. It was the pre-antibiotic era, pre-mass medication. The peoples that were affected had just gone through a major war and all that meant for infrastructure and nutrition.”

Confident that today’s health system could respond to the challenge, the professor – who served in Bosnia, Rwanda, Kosovo, Sierra Leone, Afghanistan and Iraq – said: “You don’t want to be the one of the first victims of a pandemic but if you get over the first six months, normally we have a coping method.”

Explaining the rationale for changing the way birds are monitored, an Assembly Government spokesman said: “Surveillance for avian influenza in wild birds has not stopped.

“The decision was taken in line with expert opinion across Europe that the continued testing of live wild birds is of limited value in detecting the H5N1 subtype of avian influenza.

“The changes made in respect of wild birds for avian influenza will give the taxpayer the best value for money whilst we continue to monitor the disease.”

He added: “It is important to make the distinction between avian influenza in birds, and pandemic flu in humans. Avian influenza is a disease of birds not humans.

“It is possible for people to become infected but they rarely are. There are many strains of avian influenza, which vary in their ability to cause disease in humans and there is no evidence that H5N1 has acquired the ability to pass easily from person to person.”

In November 2008, the UK became officially free from avian influenza according to the World Health Organisation.

The spokesman added: “With regards to outbreaks of avian influenza in birds in other countries, infections among domestic poultry have become endemic in certain areas in the world and the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs monitors the international disease situation closely.”

Describing the measures in place to protect people from future flu outbreaks, he said: “With regards to pandemic flu in humans, the WHO continually assesses the public health threat and remains in contact with the Assembly Government, the Department of Health and the other devolved administrations.”