The Winter Of Our Disbelief

Avian Flu Diary
# 2900





Hong Kong lies at the mouth of the Pearl River Delta. The Pearl River, as you can see from the map above, is fed by many tributaries flowing out of Guangdong Province, China.

A closer view shows Hong Kong and the New Territories at the outflow of the Pearl River.




Over the past two months more than a dozen H5N1 infected birds, mostly ducks and chickens, have washed up on the beaches of Lantau and other islands in Hong Kong.

Since these birds appeared in areas far removed from any local poultry operations – and given the level of decomposition of the birds – it is reasonable to assume they were discarded into the Pearl River, or one of its tributaries somewhere in Guangdong Province.

Additionally, Hong Kong continues to occasionally find dead migratory birds, also H5N1 infected, that likely came from the mainland.

Chinese officials, however, continue to insist that there has been no outbreak of H5N1 in Guangdong Province. They have also denied outbreaks in other provinces as well (other than one in the northwestern province of Xinjiang).

Other sources of information, however, would suggest otherwise.

On the 3rd of March, Reuters reported that bird flu had exacted a heavy toll on poultry operations in China.

Bird flu, rural downturn ravage China poultry numbers

Tue Mar 3, 2009 4:42am GMT
By Niu Shuping and Tom Miles
BEIJING, March 3 (Reuters) - The impact of bird flu and the economic slowdown may have cut China's poultry numbers by about a third or more in the last month, executives in the poultry feed industry said on Tuesday.

The executive said many chicken slaughter houses were closed, including half of those in the largest poultry producing province of Shandong, mainly because of outbreaks of bird flu.

Last Tuesday, we get this report from the Beijing Times, saying all live poultry markets would be closed in medium-sized and large cities across china.

Live poultry markets to be shut to prevent spread of Avian influenza.

The Sina news portal has a headline news story about plans to shut live poultry markets in all large and medium-sized cities throughout China, to prevent the spread of Avian flu.

Hours later, the Minister of Agriculture (MOA) of China denies the report. It appears that this was a proposal under consideration – but not a fait accompli – and someone leaked it to the press.

Dissident Media sources have reported massive outbreaks of bird flu in both Jiangsu Province and Wuhan, over the past 3 months.

Dissident Media: Massive Cull In Wuhan?
Confusion And Silence Surround Jiangsu Outbreak

And mainstream news organizations have openly questioned the official Chinese story of `no bird flu outbreaks’.

This report is from Time Magazine.

Is China Making Its Bird-Flu Outbreak Worse?

By Austin Ramzy / Beijing Friday, Feb. 13, 2009

Farmers prepare to bury dead chickens on Feb. 5 in Chongqing, China, where since Jan. 30 nearly 12,000 chickens have been found dead in a local village. The cause of the deaths is still not determined

You can find more coverage on these, and other reports, in the following blogs:

Chinese Vet Warns Of `Grave Threat' From Animal Diseases

More On The Chinese Bird Flu Mystery
Time: Is China Making Its Bird Flu Outbreak Worse?
Hong Kong Continues To Find Infected Birds

China Denies H5N1 Outbreaks In Poultry
All Eyes On Mainland China

This morning we get a rather long article from AFP (Agence France-Presse) which once again asks the question:

Just what is going on in China?

First some excerpts from this report, then some more discussion. By all means, follow the link to read the entire article.

I’ll wait.

China bird flu effort in question after new cases
by John Saeki John Saeki – Sat Mar 14, 11:28 pm ET

HONG KONG (AFP) – A probe into an outbreak of bird flu at a Hong Kong chicken farm and carcasses popping up in city waters have raised questions over whether the H5N1 virus is going undetected in southern China.

The report released this month said wild birds were the most likely carriers of the virus that broke out in December on a farm close to the territory's border with the southern Chinese province of Guangdong, prompting the culling of 90,000 chickens.

While the authors could not say for certain where in Asia the wild bird may have contracted H5N1, the report said the specific version of the virus was the same as that "currently circulating among poultry in southern China".


Peter Cordingley, the Asia-Pacific spokesman for the World Health Organisation, said the appearance of the dead birds was an issue of concern.

"From a public health point of view we are concerned about South China," he said, adding that Hong Kong's surveillance systems for outbreaks in humans and poultry was the "international gold standard".

A spokesman for China's health ministry declined to comment.

The report mentioned in this article is a 47 page, highly detailed epidemiological report issued by the University of Hong Kong, on the outbreak of H5N1 on a solitary chicken farm in the New Territories last December.

Epidemiology Report of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 Outbreak in December 2008 in a Chicken Farm in Ha Tsuen, New Territories

The question of how a single farm could become infected with the H5N1 virus was addressed on page 3 & 4 of the report. The most likely source, they believe, was from wild migratory birds.

(1) Introduction of virus into farm

(i) The virus could have been introduced to the farm by droppings of infected wild birds given the presence of aquatic birds and other birds on and around the farm and the presence of trees on the farm and uncovered soak away pits that are attractive to birds, including large aquatic species (herons and egrets).
Part of the aisle of the infected shed no. 17, although covered by bird protection nets, was under some branches of the trees near its entrance. This design of the shed could have allowed the droppings of wild birds to contaminate the exposed area inside the shed.

(ii) The strong winds and gust from the north and north-east from 4 to 6 December 2008 could have deposited potentially contaminated dust and leaves from the trees into the nearby shed no. 17 via its north opening. These contaminated materials could then have gathered at the corner of the shed where the initial high mortality in poultry occurred.

(iii) Introduction of the virus from outside the farm through contaminated fomites or people is considered less likely.

(iv) Introduction of the virus from drinking water can be ruled out as all chickens are supplied with reticulated water.

This is a diagnosis of exclusion, of course.


Researchers basically eliminated the other possibilities, and were left with migratory birds as the most plausible explanation.

Birds that most likely came from Guangdong Province, China.

Over the past few months we’ve seen openly contradictory statements by the Chinese Minister of Health (MOH) and the Chinese Minister of Argriculture (MOA) over the source of infection of the 7 admitted human cases in January.

The MOH insists that nearly all had direct contact with poultry, and that was the likely source of infection. The MOA insists that the country’s poultry is free of the virus.

Both can’t be right.

In February Zhong Nanshan, a hero of the SARS outbreak and a highly respected respiratory disease specialist, warned that vaccinated poultry can still become infected with the H5N1 virus.

Chinese expert issues new bird flu warning
www.chinaview.cn 2009-02-06 17:59:50

GUANGZHOU, Feb. 6 (Xinhua) -- A leading Chinese expert on respiratory diseases has warned the public to be aware that poultry can be infected with the bird flu virus but show no symptoms.


"Special attention should be paid to such animals, including those that have been vaccinated," said Zhong Nanshan.

"The existing vaccines can only reduce the amount of virus, rather than totally inactivating it," he said.

Over the past couple of months we’ve seen some of the biggest names in public health out of Hong Kong (and some mainland China) openly questioning the official Chinese story.

Some recent quotes plucked from news reports over the past couple of months include:

"The human cases show the virus must be circulating among birds," Vincent Martin, a senior technical advisor on avian flu for the FAO, told Bloomberg.

Dr Hans Troedsson, WHO Representative in China stated :"The fact that this is the highest number (of human infections) for a single month in China reminds us that the virus is entrenched and circulating in the environment.”

Dr. Lo Wing-Lok, a communicable disease expert from Hong Kong, stated "There's no doubt of an outbreak of bird flu in China, though the government hasn't admitted it."

"From the various investigations we have done (the washed-up carcasses) are most likely drifting down from the Pearl River," Hong Kong's health secretary York Chow said in early February.

And you can add in the voices of such notables as Malik Peiris, Robert Webster, and Guan Yi to the growing chorus of concern over bird flu flying under the radar in China.

Assuming these respected scientists are right, the problem in China appears two-fold.

First, wild (mostly aquatic) birds apparently continue to harbor the H5N1 virus - probably without ill effect – and serve as an ongoing vector to the domestic poultry in that country.

Second, vaccinated poultry may acquire the infection without showing symptoms due to the partial protection afforded by the poultry vaccines in use. Healthy appearing poultry can therefore pass the virus on to other birds, and on rare occasions, to humans as well.

The OIE (World Organization For Animal Health) recently reaffirmed their long-standing position that vaccination of poultry cannot be considered a long-term solution to combating the avian flu virus.

In Avian influenza and vaccination: what is the scientific recommendation?, the OIE reiterates their strong recommendation that humane culling be employed to control avian influenza, and advising that vaccines should only be used as a temporary measure.

While the OIE concedes that some nations may require the use of vaccines for `several years', they strongly urge that countries move away from that program and towards the more conventional culling policy.

They call this shift away from vaccines an `Exit Strategy’, something which China has shown no move towards.

For the Minister of Agriculture, who is responsible for the largest poultry production on earth (estimated at 15 billion birds), having a silent but (potentially) deadly virus circulating among the nation’s poultry industry has to be nothing short of a nightmare.

Poultry is one of the few relatively inexpensive, and readily available, sources of protein for his country of 1.3 billion people. Massive culling to rid themselves of the infection would be a drastic, and very unpopular, course of action.

It could even be politically destabilizing.

While it is unclear exactly how pervasive asymptomatic H5N1 might be in China’s poultry, the reports we keep getting suggest the problem is growing worse.

Meanwhile, the silence out of China on what is going on remains deafening.