Summary: Commonground’s Thoughts on Tamiflu

I am hard pressed to find any information on the recovery from Swine Flu ....without Tamiflu. I’m wondering, because there certainly is not enough Tamiflu to treat everyone, and as this virus spreads, there will be problems.

But I keep getting these statements that are so contradictory.

Here are a few:

Published: April 30, 2009
CDC Suggests Few Changes to Routine Flu Treatment for Swine Flu Outbreak

“Aside from testing procedures, assessment and management of 2009 H1N1 (swine) flu should largely mimic that for seasonal flu, the CDC says. “
vs.
“As of now, the CDC said, antiviral treatment should be considered whether cases are confirmed, probable, or even suspected.”

We don’t throw all the probable, and suspected cases of seasonal influenza on Tamiflu do we? Even though it is now becoming resistant in our seasonal flu. See: WHO update on Tamiflu resistance. So, in one sentence they say to “manage it as we do for seasonal flu"....and in the next sentence they say that "all probable and suspected should be given antiviral treatment". Doesn’t make sense.


"Based on prior variants of swine-origin influenza A virus, clinical complications range from mild respiratory illness to lower respiratory tract illness, dehydration, pneumonia, and, occasionally, death."
vs.
"The CDC said clinicians should expect complications to be similar to those seen with seasonal flu virus."


Alright then. A small majority of our seasonal flu patients each year are hospitalized, and have the severe manifestations. Then they get Tamiflu. I understand that. But, not all probable and suspected people who may come down with seasonal flu get Tamiflu.

Then, the FDA came in earlier this week, and revised their guidelines, to include children under 1. Which prompted me to ask the question, again, “How do people fare, without Tamiflu”??? Seems to me, they are really going thru a lot to revise recommendations, and push the Tamiflu on everyone who even thinks they are infected.

Earlier this week, the FDA issued Emergency Use Authorizations for expanded use of zanamivir and oseltamivir. These include:

* Oseltamivir can be used to treat and prevent influenza in children under 1 year old with alternate dosing recommendations for older children.

Regardless of age, the CDC recommended initiation of antivirals as soon as possible after the onset of symptoms and continuation for five days at the same doses used for seasonal flu.

The benefit appears strongest when treatment is started within 48 hours, but seasonal flu studies suggest reductions in mortality and duration of hospitalization even when the drug is started more than 48 hours after illness onset.

I thought that may be because this was a novel virus, and we had no immunity, that was the reason for the Tamiflu...but then I found this....

“US Swine flu severity no worse than seasonal flu” says expert
April 30, 2009
http://en.mercopress.com/2009/04/30/us-swine-flu-severity-no-worse-than-seasonal-flu-says-expert


So now, I’m back at square one. Why the revision with FDA to dispense to children under 1? Why push tamiflu on anyone who is suspected, or probable?

From the article:
"The swine flu strain, called H1N1, is passed on just like seasonal flu—mainly through coughing or sneezing of infected people".

"The symptoms also mirror those of seasonal flu, including fever, cough, sore throat, body aches, headache, chills, and fatigue".

"Though H1N1 isn't a pandemic—the World Health Organization has given it a threat level of five, its second highest rating—it's much too early to tell how severe the outbreak will be, said Ruth Karron, director of the Center for Immunization Research at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health".

"There probably will be additional deaths reported. We do [also] have deaths from seasonal influenza, and I think it's important to bear that in mind," Karron said. ...
-snip-
"Experts are most concerned about swine flu for three reasons, the public health association's Benjamin said.

For one, it's genetically novel from other viruses, meaning that people aren't resistant to it. The virus is also easily spread and has been very lethal in Mexico, where 159 people have died so far".

[they never did give you the 3rd reason....bottom of article]

My concern is still H5N1. My concern is dipping into the National Stockpile, for a flu that is no different than a seasonal flu. H5N1 has a case fatality rate of approx. 55%. In Indonesia, the CFR is 80%. We will need our Tamiflu to help us during a high CFR Pandemic. Assuming we have not grown resistant to it by the time we need it.

And I’m still looking around the net...to find out how many people in the US recover from Swine Flu, without the treatment of Tamiflu. And now, I'm perplexed as to how we got to a Phase 5 on the Pandemic level, for a virus that shows symptoms exactly like our seasonal flu. And why they would expect the general public, to all of a sudden, not go to work with mild flu-like symptoms? They've always done that. And while I'm at it...How can they expect the general public to not go to work with mild flu-like symptoms, and say, the Swine fever severity is no worse than seasonal flu....but don't forget, we're at Phase 5, and you should wear a face mask, and avoid public places, and don't travel by plane unless it is absolutely necessary. Crazy!!!

This is not adding up.