Diligence, not panic, urged in Swine Flu preparations

CARROLLTON (GA) -- A wave of swine flu outbreaks this fall, seen as likely by medical experts, could cause as many as 300 million deaths worldwide, including 2 million in the United States, and cause major social and economic disruptions, according to a projection from an official with the Medical College of Georgia.

Despite that dramatic prediction, health experts say vigilance, not panic, should guide plans for dealing with a possible outbreak.

Officials at the University of West Georgia are gathering as much information as possible and preparing for multiple scenarios that could arise from an outbreak of swine flu, UWG’s Health Services department said.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has issued guidelines for how universities should handle swine flu, also known as H1N1. It has recommended that institutions not cancel classes because of the flu, but instead should educate people about the virus and have those who report symptoms isolate themselves for seven days.
MCG’s Dr. Phillip Coule, who spoke at a workshop on pandemic flu planning sponsored by the University System of Georgia, based his projection on an outlook that compares this year’s occurrence with the attack of a similar wave of flu in 1918.

“That year, there was what’s called a herald wave, which is an initial wave, that hit in the spring, followed by a period in which the virus receded, then returned with even more potency in the fall,” Coule said.

That’s been the general trend of the virus this year, and if the similarities hold up, H1N1 could present a major health crisis with widespread impact.

However, Coule’s projection assumes that no effective vaccine is available. Federal officials announced last week that swine flu vaccinations could begin in October.
Studies with experimental batches of the vaccine are set to begin the

first week of August to test their effectiveness.

If those tests are successful, the federal government will buy the vaccine from the manufacturers and distribute it to states.

Swine flu appears to have the highest attack rates among school-age children, young adults (especially those with health problems), pregnant women and health workers, Coule said.

Those people would probably have the highest priority for getting vaccinated.

More than 1 million people in the United States are estimated to have been infected with the virus since it was detected in the U.S. in the spring, and it continues to spread.

Coule said there will need to be a number of steps taken to prevent major problems resulting from the swine flu outbreak.

“People will need to be educated, and we’re going to have to accept that we won’t necessarily be able to conduct business as usual, so we’ll have to identify how and when things will get back to normal,” he said.
Coule said education efforts shouldn’t prompt people to panic, but rather should make them aware of the potential for trouble so that they will not be complacent.

The regular winter flu, which kills about 36,000 Americans each year, poses its own set of difficulties, but the basic steps that experts say help contain its spread will also be urged to fight swine flu.

Those include frequent hand washing, use of hand sanitizers, coughing or sneezing into one’s arm, instead of the hand, and requiring ill people to stay home.

Schools and workplaces need to establish policies that are accommodating to people who need to stay home because they are ill or because they need to care for ill children, Coule said.

A wave of swine flu attacks is seen by experts as inevitable this fall because the H1N1 strain has continued to spread, including 50 outbreaks in children’s summer camps in the United States and numerous outbreaks in the Southern hemisphere worldwide.
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