Recombinomics Commentary 11:57
January 17, 2009
The doctor in this hospital said the mother was positive bird flu, he said sadly.
In the meantime the Lily (47) the husband of casualties said his wife was sick along with the child the three of them. However his child recovered after being brought to the Community Health Centre.
The above translation describes another suspect H5N1 cluster in Tangerang, near Jakarta. The mother (43F) was transferred to an infectious disease hospital after failing to respond to treatment. She died within hours of admittance. The comment by the attending physician is likely based on a infleunza A positive rapid test, but there has been no official confirmation. This is a common pattern for H5N1 cases and clusters in Indonesia.
Moreover, three family members also had symptoms, but recovered. The likelihood that they will test positive is near zero. Indonesia has had a case fatality rate near 80%, which it has had since 2005. The high rate is due in part to testing / reporting issues. The MOH has already commented on a lowering of cases due to Tamiflu treatment. However, Tamiflu treatment should lower the case fatality rate, not the number of confirmed cases unless there was frequent human to human transmission, treatment generated a false negative, or both. Since there are dozens of examples of both, including the cluster described above, the artificial lowing of confirmed cases and clusters, the true extent of human H5N1 in Indonesia remains unclear.
The continuing failure of WHO to exercise oversight in Indonesia remains hazardous to the world’s health.
No comments:
Post a Comment