UK Swine Flu: Commonground Summary

This Summary will be located on the right side-bar for your convenience. All statistics can be found here:
HPA Site http://www.hpa.org.uk/web/HPAweb&HPAwebStandard/HPAweb_C/1287147913271

Let's start with a Flu update on December 17, 2009, and one from December 16, 2010.

December 17, 2009

The consultation rate for flu-like illness in England from the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) scheme has decreased slightly to 29.7 per 100,000 in week 50 compared to 33.1 in week 49. This is just below the English baseline threshold of 30/100,000.
The estimated cases self referring to the National Pandemic Flu Service have shown decreases in all areas of assessments, authorisations and collections. This is across all regions and most age groups.

Interpretation of data to produce estimates on the number of new cases continues to be subject to a considerable amount of uncertainty. HPA modelling gives an estimate of 9,000 new cases in England last week (range 5,000 to 19,000) which represents a small decrease from the previous week.

This estimate incorporates data from National Pandemic Flu Service and GP consultations.
http://tinyurl.com/2bhbzjy

Now, let's look at December 2010, same week:
It seems they have changed their format. Excerpts of relevant information:

December 16, 2010

To date, 17 people with flu across the UK are known to have died since the flu season began in October this year. At least half of those who have died were in a clinical 'at risk' group for vaccination.
In addition, 17 people have this season received ECMO (Extra-Corporeal Membrane Oxygenation) treatment in a UK hospital following lung failure, including four pregnant women.
http://tinyurl.com/3x6dp9f

17 Deaths since October, 2010. But what about the consultation rates for flu-like illnesses, and the HPA modeling estimate of new cases? I found some of it in a local news site, and from the HPA site.

In week 51 (ending 26 December), the weekly ILI consultation rates increased across the UK. The weekly influenza/influenza-like illness (ILI) consultation rates remain above baseline levels in England (124.4 per 100,000) and Wales (92.1 per 100,000). The rates have now increased above the baseline in Scotland (58.4 per 100,000) and Northern Ireland (99.4 per 100,000).
http://tinyurl.com/3y8pews

28 Dec 2010 (a few days ago)

An epidemic is officially declared when the rate of people seeing their GP with flu or a flu-like illness exceeds 200 per 100,000 people in a week. The rate rose from 34.6 to 87.1 in the week before Christmas.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/8227500/Children-going-back-to-school-could-trigger-major-flu-epidemic.html

So, we can say the rate of flu-like illness has been a drastic change in one years time.

December 17, 2009: 29.7 per 100,000
December 18, 2010: 87.1 per 100,000

Now, let's look at deaths. Here are a few stats from July of 2009:

July 9, 2009

Weekly pandemic flu update (9 July 2009)
The majority of cases continue to be mild with 12 deaths in England to date, all with underlying risk factors.
http://tinyurl.com/38hofqz

We went from 12 deaths to 26 deaths in one week.

July 16, 2009

* GP consultation rates in England for individuals presenting with flu-like illness show increased rates, above the threshold level for normal seasonal flu activity and higher than the peak activity in winter 08/09.
* The under-5s and 5-14 year olds are the age groups predominantly affected.
* The majority of cases continue to be mild with 26 deaths in England to date.
* HPA estimates that there were 55,000 new cases of swine flu last week (range 30,000 - 85,000).
http://www.hpa.org.uk/NewsCentre/NationalPressReleases/2009PressReleases/090716Weeklypandemicfluupdate/

26 deaths as of July 16th 2009.
17 deaths as of December 16, 2010 (since October 2010)

Now, let's look at the very latest update.

December 31, 2010

Weekly national influenza report, 31 December 2010
In the past week, the HPA has been notified of a further 12 people who have died with confirmed flu, bringing the total number since the flu season began in October this year to 39.

36 of these people died with the H1N1 (2009) strain and 3 with Influenza B.
All except one case were under 65 years of age and four were under the age of five.
http://tinyurl.com/283gsmw

So, in conclusion:

Deaths
July 2009
26 Deaths (as of July 16th)

2010
17 deaths (as of December 16th; since Oct.)
36 deaths (as of December 31st; since Oct.)

Rate of Flu-like Illness
December 17, 2009
29.7 per 100,000

December 18, 2010
87.1 per 100,000

Here is a chart that illustrates my analysis above.


http://www.hpa.org.uk/webc/HPAwebFile/HPAweb_C/1287147913387