Tue May 5, 2009 3:16am EDT
Excerpt:
CRITICAL PERIOD
Raina MacIntyre, professor of infectious diseases epidemiology at the University of New South Wales, says a worst-case scenario would be an epidemic hitting countries such as Australia and New Zealand.
"The worst case scenario is an epidemic that could cause illness in 40 percent of the population, cause 50 percent work and school absenteeism, and 2.4 percent case fatality rate. With our best available strategies for prevention and mitigation, we could reduce that to 10 percent getting sick and halve the case fatality rate," she told Reuters in an email.
"Yes, we are definitely more at risk given we are coming into our winter, when influenza transmission is intensified ... we are in a critical phase right now."
But no one has a clue how the virus will behave from here.
"So far, we have not seen any particular virulence with this virus, though more cases need confirmation to be sure of this. This also means that it can be a candidate for reassortment with other potentially more virulent strains of influenza, such as avian H5N1," said Julian Tang, consultant with the Division of Microbiology at National University Hospital in Singapore.
Some experts consider that to be the worst that can happen. The world would be faced with a monstrous virus that not only spreads with ease among people, but packed with the killing power of the H5N1, which has a mortality rate of 60 to 70 percent.
TROPICS: BEWARE AIR CONDITIONING
Tang said in the tropical countries, modern comforts, like air-conditioning, may fuel the spread of H1N1.
"With tropical countries using air-conditioning more heavily in hot weather ... outdoor climate factors may become irrelevant when most of influenza (and other respiratory viruses) are transmitted indoors in an air-conditioned environment in tropical countries," he said.
There is no seasonal pattern to influenza in the tropics and outbreaks happen all year round.
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