Swine H1N1 Fatalities in Mexico

Recombinomics Commentary 16:27
May 8, 2009

The official noted that the highest peaks (for deaths) of the days of the epidemic were 25 and April 26. Cordova reiterated that the age at which most deaths were recorded between 20 and 29 years.

The above comments are from an update on cases in Mexico. The samples are being retested for swine H1N1 and the testing is reconfirming earlier reports. In addition, sequences are being generated from outbreaks worldwide (see updated map), and these sequences match those from Mexico (well over 99% identical).

These data suggest that the number of cases is much higher than reported in official numbers and raise concerns that similar fatality levels will be recorded as the swine H1N1 spreads worldwide. The country reporting the most cases in the United States, but new cases are appearing in the southern hemisphere, raising concerns that the virus will expand and evolve.

The targeting of previously healthy young adults repeats data from 1918, as does the movement of swine H1N1 into a human population (as seen in the list below).

Concerns that the virus will recombine with seasonal flu and acquire key changes such as oseltamivir resistance (H274Y), as well as PB2 E627K highlight the importance of sequence surveillance.

The continuing spread of H1N1 remains a cause for concern.

A/Arizona/01/2009
A/Arizona/02/2009
A/Auckland/1/2009
A/Auckland/2/2009
A/Auckland/3/2009
A/Auckland/4/2009
A/California/04/2009
A/California/05/2009
A/California/06/2009
A/California/07/2009
A/California/08/2009
A/California/09/2009
A/California/10/2009
A/California/14/2009
A/Canada-NS/RV1535/2009
A/Canada-ON/RV1527/2009
A/Castilla-La Mancha/GP13/2009
A/Castilla-La Mancha/GP9/2009
A/Catalonia/P148/2009
A/Catalonia/P154/2009
A/Christchurch/2/2009
A/Colorado/03/2009
A/Denmark/513/2009
A/England/195/2009
A/Hamburg/4/2009
A/Indiana/09/2009
A/Israel/644/2009
A/Israel/G-640/2009
A/Israel/G-645/2009
A/Israel/MF-119/2009
A/Israel/MF-70/2009
A/Italy/01/2009
A/Italy/02/2009
A/Italy/03/2009
A/Italy/04/2009
A/Kansas/02/2009
A/Kansas/03/2009
A/Lisboa/26/2009
A/Massachusetts/06/2009
A/Massachusetts/07/2009
A/Michigan/02/2009
A/Minnesota/02/2009
A/Mexico/4108/2009
A/Mexico/4115/2009
A/Mexico/4482/2009
A/Mexico/4186/2009
A/Mexico/4516/2009
A/Mexico/4603/2009
A/Mexico/4604/2009
A/Mexico/InDRE4487/2009
A/Michigan/02/2009
A/Nebraska/02/2009
A/Netherlands/602/2009
A/New York/06/2009
A/New York/09/2009
A/New York/10/2009
A/New York/11/2009
A/New York/12/2009
A/New York/13/2009
A/New York/15/2009
A/New York/18/2009
A/New York/20/2009
A/New York/22/2009
A/New York/23/2009
A/New York/31/2009
A/Ohio/07/2009
A/Pais Vasco/GP20/2009
A/Regensburg/Germany/01/2009
A/Regensburg/Germany/02/2009
A/South Carolina/09/2009
A/Stockholm/28/2009
A/Switzerland/01/2009
A/Texas/04/2009
A/Texas/05/2009
A/Texas/06/2009
A/Texas/07/2009
A/Texas/08/2009
A/Texas/09/2009
A/Texas/15/2009
A/Toronto/3141/2009
A/Toronto/3145/2009
A/Toronto/3146/2009
A/Toronto/3170/2009
A/Toronto/3178/2009
A/Toronto/3181/2009
A/Toronto/3184/2009
A/Valencia/GP4/2009