By Adam Playford The Palm Beach Post
May 16, 2010
Oil may be on its way.
New satellite images show oil starting to enter the Gulf Loop current, which would pull it through the Florida Keys, into the Gulf Stream and up to Palm Beach County, according to a scientist tracking the oil spewing into the gulf.
The new images, taken Saturday by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, "clearly [show] that the oil is being pulled into the Loop current," according to a release from Mitch Roffer, an oceanographer who runs Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service and has been providing daily updates on the spill's movement.
"We still don't know how long it's going to take to get around to the Keys and then the east coast of Florida - it just remains to be seen," Roffer said Saturday.
That process, which is difficult to predict, would take at least a week, and possibly several, scientists say.
Richard Dodge, the dean of the Nova Southeastern University Oceanographic Center, said he'd seen Roffer's report and "it looks to me like he's right.
"It hasn't quite happened," Dodge said, noting that currents might still shift to force the oil away. "But from the satellite photos that I saw, it sure looks like it's going to happen."
Ed Tichenor, director of the nonprofit group Palm Beach County Reef Rescue, said he wasn't surprised to learn that the oil was being pulled into the Gulf Loop.
"We've been concerned about it getting into the Loop current, almost from Day One," Tichenor said. "Now the question is, when will it get here, and what form will it be when it gets here."
The images show one small tendril being pulled into the current - not the main body of the oil itself.
But that could change. The Gulf Loop moves and could conceivably wind up passing through the bulk of the oil, or even the source of the leak.
"The worry is that it's a harbinger of things to come, and it'll switch from a small rivulet to a stream," Dodge said.
"The Loop" is a powerful current, flopping around throughout the Gulf of Mexico and sucking warm water toward the Keys.
That flopping, combined with the shifting winds and a lack of prior experience, has led to little certainty.
"People just haven't studied it that well," Dodge said. "No one thought it would happen."
Among other things, it's hard to predict what form the oil will take, scientists say.
It could be floating mats or tar balls, depending on the depth the oil flows at - and it could change over time, as the Loop and the oil move.
Palm Beach County officials have formed a task force to help plan to deal with the slick if it arrives to the Atlantic coast. The group is scheduled to meet Monday.
Its focus has been on protecting the county's four inlets, guarding against health risks and rounding up labor and resources to shield the county and coastal wildlife.
During a meeting with commissioners two weeks ago, Assistant County Administrator Vince Bonvento, who oversees the emergency management department, has said a protective boom, used as a floating fence to trap oil, is the "most significant" equipment the county needs to have on hand to protect inlets here.
On Saturday, Bonvento was doubtful that oil was entering the Gulf Loop.
"It's contrary to the information we've been receiving from the federal and state agencies," Bonvento said. "The only thing we're going from is the official information from the state and NOAA."
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