Perfect storm for swine flu

DAVID KILLICK

July 16, 2009 02:00am

TASMANIA'S health system is headed for a perfect storm within weeks as the swine flu epidemic peaks.

Acting public health director Chrissie Pickin said the state's health system would be at full stretch very soon.

"This is going to be one of the worst winters for the health service in a long time," she said.

"Partly because of this (swine flu), partly because of the whooping cough outbreak. There's a lot of respiratory illness out there that isn't flu and, of course, there's seasonal flu.

"All of those together means this is going to be a nightmare winter for the health service. You can't really prepare for something like that, you can only really deal with it when it hits."

Dr Pickin said swine flu cases had increased more slowly than expected and the peak was six to eight weeks away.

"We are just reaching the point where it's going to ramp up quickly over the next few weeks," she said.

"It's been a longer, slower build-up than we thought it would be. We thought we'd follow Victoria's experience. The other states haven't and we're probably the last one for it to really pick up.

"We should start to see more hospitalisations and possibly ICU admissions in the next couple of weeks."

Tasmania has had 217 confirmed cases of swine flu, although routine testing has been suspended. Fifteen people have been hospitalised and one has died.

Health Minister Lara Giddings said most people were not too badly affected by the illness, but authorities were monitoring its spread.

"Our concern is that we expect it will get worse leading up to August, particularly as we go through our winter months and we're dealing with not just the normal seasonal flu but also swine flu this year," she said.

"We are concerned that there are some healthy people who don't have underlying chronic conditions who are being severely affected by swine flu.

"They're small in number at this point in time, but it's enough to make us understand and realise that this is still potentially a very serious virus."

Education Department deputy secretary Greg Glass said the impact of swine flu on the education system would continue for at least two months.

"We remind all parents and carers to keep sick children home for seven days and until their fever has gone. Key symptoms are fever and a cough and/or sore throat," Mr Glass said.