U.K. Calls for Calm While Planning for 65,000 Swine Flu Deaths

By Thomas Penny and Charlie Duxbury

July 17 (Bloomberg) -- Britons were told not to panic over swine flu today after the nation’s most senior doctor said the health service is planning for 65,000 deaths from the disease, which has claimed 29 lives so far in the U.K.

Professor Steve Field, chairman of the Royal College of General Practitioners, said that for most people the disease would be mild. He said the forecasted death toll, announced by Chief Medical Officer Liam Donaldson yesterday, is a worst-case scenario used by the National Health Service for planning.

“These figures create a bit of panic and they shouldn’t do at all,” Field told the BBC radio’s “Today” program. “What we’ve got to try and do is reassure patients because for most patients this is a relatively mild condition.”

About 6,000 people die on average from seasonal flu each year, with 21,000 killed during the winter between 1999 and 2000, Donaldson told reporters yesterday. The NHS assumption of 65,000 deaths is based on a mortality rate of 0.35 percent.

“Current experience from abroad suggests a figure closer to 0.1 percent at present, but ratios up to 0.35 percent cannot be ruled out on the basis of current U.K. data,” a Department of Health briefing paper says.

In the flu pandemic of 1957-8, about 33,000 people died, giving a mortality rate of 0.25 percent. In 1968-70, deaths numbered 30,000, or 0.2 percent, Donaldson said.

Cases Detected

So far, 9,000 cases have been confirmed by laboratory tests. The Health Protection Agency estimates that there were 55,000 new cases last week.

“The health service has to plan on some assumptions,” Field said. “The problem is that the public don’t understand that this is the sort of thing we expect every year anyway.”

The Department of Health will open a National Pandemic Flu Centre for England next week, three months ahead of schedule after deaths from the disease more than doubled in a week. It will give advice by telephone and Internet to those who fear they may be infected.

The service is intended to relieve pressure on the NHS. It has the authority to prescribe anti-viral drugs, unlike the NHS Direct telephone service. Twenty-six people died of swine flu in England by July 15, up from 12 on July 9, with three deaths in Scotland giving a total for the U.K. of 29.

“The National Pandemic Flu service is intended as an alternative route of access to the NHS for the public,” Donaldson said. “It is to take pressure off front-line services to allow them to concentrate on the most ill.”

Some parts of England have become swine flu “hot spots, ” putting medical staff under strain, Department of Health figures show. The West Midlands region reported 2,582 cases, which is about 40 percent of the total for England.

The Department of Health was planning to open the National Pandemic Flu Centre in October and acted today because of pressure from primary-care trusts in the most affected areas.

London’s Tower Hamlets Primary Care Trust has reported the highest rate of consultations for flu-like symptoms in the U.K. Doctors reported an incidence rate of 759 per 100,000 people there. Neighboring City and Hackney Teaching PCT is second on the list.

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To contact the reporters on this story: Thomas Penny in London at tpenny@bloomberg.netCharlie Duxbury in London at cduxbury@bloomberg.net;
Last Updated: July 17, 2009 06:31 EDT