Confirmed H5N1 Spread Accelerates In Bangladesh

Recombinomics Commentary 13:16
December 23, 2008

"Some 9,950 birds of the farms and the household and nearby areas of the country's western Natore, central Gazipur, eastern Narsingdi, and northern Gaibandha and Kurigram districts were culled this month," he said.

The above comments from the Bangladesh MOFL identify yet another recent outbreak, in Gaibandha (see zoomed map). This outbreak has yet to appear on the daily update, which reported Kurigram yesterday and Natore over the weekend. Thus, the three outbreaks in the past few days clearly signal an increase in H5N1 activity in northern Bangladesh, flanked on the west by West Bengal and on the east by Assam and Meghalaya.

The latest outbreak is only about 20 miles from the Meghalaya border and 30 miles from South Dinajpur in West Bengal. The number of recent outbreaks, and proximity to West Bengal and Assam, suggests both Indian provinces have more activity than is being reported.

Malda in West Bengal confirmed H5N1 in Englishbazar and is culling over 30,000 birds. The death of hundreds of crows suggests H5N1 will spread to adjacent blocks and Bangladesh and excessive poultry deaths have been reported in adjacent blocks (Ratua I, Gajole, and Manikchak), yet the dead birds are not being tested or culled. Instead blood is being collected for routine surveillance, which is almost always negative because the birds die before H5N1 antibodies reach detectable levels. The outbreak in Englishbazar was detected by a rapid test, which measures RNA levels in swabs or tissue samples. Similarly, all initial positives in Assam were tissue based.

Instead of testing, the bird deaths are attributed by Newcastle Disease, which produces symptoms similar to bird flu and is commonly diagnosed to hide or ignore H5N1 outbreaks. Similarly, media reports indicate birds are being buried and not tested for H5N1 based on visual diagnosis of Newcastle Disease. Thus, the H5N1 outbreaks are being cover up, literally and figuratively.In contrast, Bangladesh is confirming H5N1 quickly.
In Kurigram, H5N1 was confirmed in the morning on two hens, and culling began by evening. However, in spite of this rapid response, H5N1 spread is accelerating.

Thus, like last season, the spread of H5N1 is accelerating as winter approaches, and India is trying to control the spread by minimal and inappropriate testing or misdiagnosis.