Psychological preparation

July 03, 2009

Earlier this evening I fretted about numbers and projections that seem impossible. Apparently I'm on the same page as the editor of Arab News: Editorial: Spread of swine flu. Excerpt:

Preparations do not mean that millions will not be infected, rather than millions will not die. At present, in addition to the 300 who have died worldwide since the outbreak started, some 70,000 have been infected in over 100 countries.

But this is set to rocket. The UK, for example, the worst hit country in Europe, expects a 100,000 new cases a day within just eight week’s time. That is a staggering prediction and difficult to believe.

If the outbreak were to continue at that rate, it would mean 24 million people infected before the end of April. Moreover, at the present rate of three British deaths to 7,447 confirmed cases, that translates to almost 10,000 deaths by the same time.

But before dismissing this out of hand as mathematical modeling gone crazy, no country can afford to let its guard down.

That is especially so in Saudi Arabia, where the Haj season always results in the spread of new viruses. It is just months away. As of yesterday there were 106 confirmed cases and the number is increasing as elsewhere.

For years, Flublogia has worried about being physically prepared for a pandemic. (Today on CBC Radio's The Current, Dr. Peter Sandman was very eloquent about this.)

But psychological preparation may be even more important: Getting it into our thick heads that people will fall ill in great numbers, that institutions like hospitals and corporations will shut down, even if the mortality is not great.

We will not be able to leave the theater after two hours of delicious, vicarious fear. We won't be able to change the channel. It will not be happening far away, but on our block.

For people in the developing world, long accustomed to violence, malaria, dengue, HIV, and infant mortality, a pandemic may be easier to take than it will be for us in the industrial world. We have been very well protected for half a century. Almost four years ago, we saw how quickly things could fall apart when Katrina hit New Orleans, but we did our best to forget it.

Stress reveals character. I hope that the stress of the next six months reveals character worth respecting in those of us who have enjoyed the greatest benefits of the last 60 years.