World health officials tackle swine flu challenges

Friday, July 3

CANCUN, Mexico – Swine flu is running wild in the Southern Hemisphere and is spreading rapidly through Europe, with Britain projected to reach 100,000 daily cases by the end of August. The virus is even showing signs of rebounding in Mexico.

World Health Organization Director-General Dr. Margaret Chan and health ministers from around the globe huddled Thursday in Cancun for a two-day summit to design strategies for battling the pandemic. Nations attending include the United States, Canada, China, Britain and Brazil.

"As we see today, with well over 100 countries reporting cases, once a fully fit pandemic virus emerges, its further international spread is unstoppable," Chan said during opening remarks.

Mexican officials wanted the meeting held in the Caribbean resort city of Cancun _ where tourism has plunged _ to highlight the country's success in controlling its epidemic with a five-day national shutdown of schools and businesses in May.

The measures were applauded by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and international health officials.

"Our presence here is an expression of confidence," Chan said. "Mexico is a safe, as well as a beautiful and warmly gracious, place to visit."

But Mexico is starting to see an increase in swine flu cases in isolated areas. In southern Chiapas state and the state of Yucatan _ adjacent to Quintana Roo state, where Cancun is located _ cases have jumped more than 50 percent in a worrying sign that the country may see a resurgence, especially when its winter flu season begins in November.

In the space of a week ending Tuesday, the number of cases in Yucatan state jumped from 683 to 1,362, and in Chiapas from 492 to 1,079, Mexico's Health Department said. During the same week, Quintana Roo reported 102 new cases.

Yucatan and Chiapas officials blamed the spike on outbreaks in schools, which they closed a few weeks early for summer break.

"Unfortunately we let our guard down, especially after classes started, and the outbreak is unstoppable," Yucatan Health Secretary Alvaro Quijano told local news media.

Mexico has confirmed a total of 10,687 cases to date, including 119 deaths.

With the Southern Hemisphere in the midst of its winter flu season, Chan said officials are keeping a close watch on those countries. U.S. Health Secretary Kathleen Sibelius said the United States will give 420,000 Tamiflu treatments to the Pan American Health Organization to be distributed in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Chile's epidemic has followed closely behind outbreaks in Mexico and the United States. Cases in the South American country have swelled to 7,342, including 15 deaths. The government has predicted it could see as many as 140 children hospitalized a day.

Argentina, meanwhile, has 1,587 cases and now ranks first in South America with 26 deaths and third behind Mexico and the United States.

Under mounting public pressure, Argentina's government this week announced schools would close nationwide Monday for an extended winter break.

Britain, which has officially reported 7,447 swine flu cases, is the hardest-hit nation in Europe. Many flu experts believe numbers could jump exponentially now that the virus is entrenched.

British officials had been trying to contain the flu by liberally giving out the drug Tamiflu to all suspected victims and their contacts. Health minister Andy Burnham said Thursday that Britain will now only give the antiviral to people with the virus after forecasting 100,000 new swine flu cases a day by the end of August.

Experts questioned Burnham's prediction.

"It seems like a lot of mathematical modeling and not too much common sense," said John Oxford, a professor of virology at St. Bart's and Royal London Hospital.

Oxford predicted swine flu would taper off with summer's warm weather.

Australia has the most cases in the Asia-Pacific region, with more than 4,568 confirmed as of Thursday, an increase of 198 in one day. A 45-year-old man died in the intensive care ward of a Sydney hospital on Monday, becoming the 10th death.

Worldwide, there were 332 deaths and more than 77,000 confirmed cases as of Wednesday, according to the latest figures available from the WHO.

Still, Chan emphasized that most people recover from the illness without medical treatment and most who die have underlying medical conditions.

But she warned officials are concerned about the virus mutating.

"Like all influenza viruses, H1N1 has the advantage of surprise on its side," she said.