Comments on CDC's Ability to forecast deaths and hospitalizations in a pandemic

Commonground's Commentary

Last month CDC announced that we would be updated "monthly" in regards to their data. This is the first monthly report. They emphasize that the figures denote the "burden" of the pandemic. They also note that these figures can not be used to project future predictions of the pandemic. Wait. That is their job. They need to project the future of this pandemic, and all infectious disease situations. This statement from their site:

The CDC is one of the major operating components of the Department of Health and Human Services.

Excerpts from their Mission Statement....

..."The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) serves as the national focus for
developing and applying disease prevention and control, environmental health, and health promotion and health education activities designed to improve the health of the people of the United States."
..."CDC is responsible for controlling the introduction and spread of infectious diseases, and provides consultation and assistance to other nations and international agencies to assist in improving their disease prevention and control, environmental health, and health promotion activities."

I also am not quite understanding why the figures cannot be used to forecast the future cases. Quote from article: "This methodology is notpredictive and cannot be used to forecast the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths that will occur going forward over the course of the pandemic because they are based on actual surveillance data." If you can't forecast it based on surveillance data...what would you suggest to be more accurate? HUH???

If the CDC is not willing to step up to the plate, and project future cases down the road for this H1N1 pandemic....what would it look like if we had a more severe pandemic? A pandemic with a higher Case Fatality Rate? Many experts around the world are currently worried about a H5N1/H1N1 strain, with the deadly virulence of the H5, and the easy transmission of the H1, combining. What would the CDC do then? What data would they actually provide for us, to keep us informed? Or would be be hearing this, like we are today?:

The true number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths may lie within the ranges provided or it’s also possible that they may lie outside the ranges.

That just about covers it all, wouldn't you say? Their job is to provide disease prevention and control.....environment health...health promotion... Wouldn't part of that be to let the public know what to expect down the road in a pandemic?

2009 H1N1-Related Deaths, Hospitalizations and Cases: Details of Extrapolations and Ranges: United States, Emerging Infections Program (EIP) Data
December 10, 2009, 1:00 PM ET
In order to provide a fuller and more accurate picture of the burden of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic on the United States, CDC has developed a methodology to estimate ranges of 2009 H1N1 cases and related hospitalizations and deaths. This method uses raw data on 2009 H1N1 hospitalizations collected through CDC’s Emerging Infections Program (EIP), which conducts surveillance for laboratory-confirmed influenza-related hospitalizations in children and adults in 62 counties covering 13 metropolitan areas of 10 states. The estimated ranges generated by this methodology provide a sense of scale in terms of the burden of disease caused by 2009 H1N1. It may never be possible to validate the accuracy of these figures. The true number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths may lie within the ranges provided or it’s also possible that they may lie outside the ranges.

This methodology is notpredictive and cannot be used to forecast the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths that will occur going forward over the course of the pandemic because they are based on actual surveillance data. More information about this methodology is contained in this document.

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimates/results_2009_h1n1.htm