PF11 Blog: HA 190E Polymorphism Potential from Avian Influenza into Pandemic H1N1 (PF11)

2010-04-13

HA 190E Polymorphism Potential from Avian Influenza into Pandemic H1N1 (PF11)

Current trending indicates a reportable potential for the D190E polymorphism on the Hemagglutinin of PF11. This change may enhance Vaccine Escape from the currently selected vaccine target candidate, CA/07 X181.

Each of two codings, GAg & GAa, may emerge due to the combinational influence of Avian H5N1, H6N1 and H9N2.

190E (GAg)

• 10% probability of HA 190E (GAg) into PF11 within 30 days.
• 33% probability of HA 190E (GAg) into PF11 within 60 days.
• 85% probability of HA 190E (GAg) into PF11 within 210 days.

190E (GAa)

• 20% probability of HA 190E (GAa) into PF11 within 180 days.
• 33% probability of HA 190E (GAa) into PF11 within 210 days.

These probabilities will be updated as additional data is made public. Transparency at this stage of the pandemic is essential. Release of sequences and clinical data of a finer detail and higher quantity will allow information-based decisions.

As this particular Avian Influenza change may generate substantial clinical variance on certain backgrounds, we urge the producers of sequences to immediately publish this polymorphism upon discovery.