Monday, April 27, 2009

An Analysis

[This is a bit of an analysis of the current situation. I received permission from the moderator, Monotreme. The Pandemic Flu Information Forum link is here, and also, located on our side-bar : http://www.singtomeohmuse.com/viewforum.php?f=1 ]


The Mexican health authorities ran out of supplies to test their patients long ago. They likely have over a hundred dead and expect many more to die. They have thousands in the hospitals with pneumonia, many on ventilators. In some hospitals, health care workers have been infected and died. Some health care workers are leaving because they don't want to die.

The new virus has genomic segments from flu viruses that normally infect birds and pigs and humans. This sort of triple reassortant has never been seen before. The virus that caused the 1918 pandemic was "only a flu virus" and it nearly ended civilisation. It's CFR was 2.5%. We don't know the CFR of the current virus, but it could easily be higher than this.

"Simple" methods don't work with flu. They never have. Only extremely careful use of PPE can prevent infection. Flu is much harder to contain than SARS or other diseases because it can be spread by pre-symptomaic people.

Tamiflu does appear to be effective if it is given quickly. The population of the UK is over 60 million. Every single person is susceptible to this new virus, unlike "normal" flu. What happens when the Tamiflu runs out? What happens when the new virus becomes resistant, as we have seen with "regular" flu?

The UK is almost completely unprepared for a pandemic, like every other country (with the possible exception of some parts of China).

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