Saturday, August 22, 2009

China-A(H1N1) epidemic entering its peak season

Sunday, August 23, 2009 0:04 am TWN

The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) yesterday sounded an alert, warning that the A(H1N1) epidemic is moving into the beginning of its peak season, and that the weekly infection rate will soon cross the ten thousand mark, local media reported.






The agency has been plugging community data into a computer simulation to generate virus dispersion and said that the fast increasing number of infections suggest a large-scale epidemic lurking on the horizon, said officials.

CDC Deputy Director General Lin Ding was cited as saying that Taiwan in the past did not see proliferation of seasonal flu strains until late October, with transmission only becoming widespread come November and then topping out after Christmas.

But with the novel A(H1N1) virus thrown into the mix this year, the epidemic will not only be more severe, but widespread eruptions will make a much earlier entrance, likely when schools re-commence in September, Lin said.

Against this backdrop, health officials indicated the need for every hospital and clinic to stock rapid influenza diagnostic tests so as to speed up infection detection, which would help keep rampant transmission at bay.

Lin admittedly said some medical facilities are simply not well-equipped and may be the bottlenecks in the agency's abatement strategy against the epidemic.

There are 11 suppliers of the rapid tests at present and their capabilities collectively should be able to meet local demand, Lin added.

Meanwhile, on the vaccine front, the health official said the 10 million booster shots procured by the Department of Health (DOH) is on track for a October or November delivery.

More 'Circumspect' Strategy

Chen Jian-ren, an academician with the Academia Sinica and the former minister of the Department of Health (DOH), cautioned the government to be more circumspect with the containment of campus outbreaks and to clearly spell out the time frame within which antiviral medication should be taken.

He went on to ask officials to take heed and added that given insufficient epidemic control, the nation could see one-tenth of its population infected with the new strain in six to 12 months.

In response to Chen's statement, Lin backed the current strategy and noted the recent amendment to place the antiviral drug Tamiflu under the National Health Insurance coverage.

As soon as doctors spot symptoms classic to the new flu strain such as continued fever or shortness of breath, the patient may be immediately prescribed Tamiflu, Lin said.

But noting CDC figures, Chen explained that weekly flu-like cases went from 1,000 in early July to 6,000 by late July and then to a staggering 9,000 in the last week, clearly demonstrating the unrelenting spread of the virus in local communities.

Chen predicted the current epidemic will take one of the following courses: Slowly spreading and affecting one-tenth of the population in two to three years' time; or, should containment become ineffective, in six to 12 months.

The latter would also add to the urgency of further bolstering epidemic control and treatment strategies, Chen said.

With students heading back to school in two weeks, coupled with the likelihood of seeing 20,000 to 30,000 weekly infections, the government has yet to hammer out a plan that determines those to be administered vaccines and those to receive antiviral medication.

He urged officials to quickly finalize an effective plan that seizes the golden hour to treat infections and recommended that in group contagions, one confirmed A(H1N1) infection warrant the antiviral treatment of the entire group.

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