Aug 25 2009 12:08pm EDT
Some of the country's biggest employers are making plans to protect themselves against a worker shortage this fall triggered by swine flu, which is expected to infect up to half the population.
Pandemic planning is becoming old hat for companies. These type of preparations really began in earnest among large corporations in 2005 when predictions that the avian influenza virus, or bird flu, was going to reduce the work force by 40%, says Jayne Lux, a vice president for Washington-based National Business Group on Health.
Those predictions never came true but it got companies ready for the worst, she says. Businesses are determining what projects can be shelved and cross-training workers in the event there's an employee shortage, Lux says. The business group represents the largest companies in the U.S., from General Electric Co. to Wal-Mart Stores Inc.
"As an employer, you may have to look at those plans you made and say, 'OK, what things can we put on the back burner right now?'" Lux says.
After a spring outbreak of swine flu, employers are preparing for a more intense second round that could lead to a dramatic increase in absenteeism as workers fall sick or stay home to take care of children.
"We had a little bit of a fire drill to test out those plans in the spring," Lux says, but the number of workers calling in sick last spring was relatively low and "really nothing compared to what they predict for fall."
While the government hasn't specifically predicted absentee rates yet as it did with bird flu, the White House says it's "plausible" that up to 120 million Americans could contract swine flu this fall and winter. Up to half of the population could be infected, including many who won't develop any symptoms. As many as 90,000 Americans may die from the flu, according to government estimates.
Brett Chase covers health care for Portfolio.com and writes the blog Heavy Doses.
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