Chicken vendors are optimistic that people can enjoy fresh chicken at Lunar New Year banquets - but at inflated prices.
A 21-day ban on imports of live chickens, imposed when the carcass of a dumped chicken at the main wholesale market tested positive for the H5N1 virus, ends on Friday. And Hong Kong Poultry Wholesalers and Retailers Association chairman Wong Wai-chuen is looking forward to a restart in the business.
But once the ban is lifted, he expects the wholesale price to jump by 20-30 percent, which he thinks is reasonable.
"The wholesale price of live chicken will be set at between HK$22 and HK$30 a catty, while the retail prices per catty will be set at around HK$30 and HK$50," he said.
But he warned: "If there is a shortage in the supply, the price may jump by 50 percent."
On whether vendors may switch to chilled chicken, Wong is confident they will prefer to sell live chicken to cash in on the "golden sale period" as the Year of the Dragon commences.
He added: "Authorities in Hong Kong and the mainland have taken various precautionary measures to prevent the outbreak of bird flu. In addition, hygiene levels at chicken farms are now very strict."
As Wong sees it, the "transparency" of chicken farm operations has boosted public confidence. And officers of the Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation and the Food and Environmental Hygiene departments will be checking carefully on live chickens from the mainland.
Wong thinks too that another result of the ban could see authorities raising the daily quota for local farms.
"With sales off for so long, local chickens may grow too big," he said. "Customers will not be willing to pay HK$200 for a chicken weighing five catties when the average weight before the suspension was about 2 catties."
Also, Wong said, officials may raise the number of chickens imported daily when the ban is lifted. It was 7,000 before.
Hong Kong has also banned poultry imports from Shenzhen, where a man died from the H5N1 virus, until January 21.
Wong does not, however, expect any impact from that measure during the Lunar New Year as the supply from there was limited.
"Also, I believe local live and chilled chicken will be able to cover this," he added.
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