Signs and portents

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Signs and portents

Posted on Friday, February 13, 2009 at 09:33AM


Excerpt (at the end):

I am going to proclaim something here, and for some it may be profound, and for others it may provoke a "DUH!" response. Here we go:

I believe something has changed. Not necessarily in the virus itself; it still has not "gone H2H." But I do believe that the chickens themselves are adapting to the virus. And once that happens, the virus must also adapt to find new hosts or it will perish.

There is absolutely no reason to believe that H5N1 is going to do anything but adapt. This virus is amazing, even by influenza standards. Now factor in the extreme and absolutely sudden number and geographic spread of human cases in China that we know of, and re-read the Time story. Now also factor in the situation in eastern India, Bangladesh and Nepal. Look at the new Vietnamese human cases and the continuing situation in Indonesia.

Here's what I think has happened: H5N1 has won its latest battle with the human race and has completely overrun its defenses. It has not won the war, but it is clear that it has completely outmaneuvered every attempt by humans to thwart its advance. But this latest victory may, eventually, be considered as the turning point in the war.

Consider the circumstances. The global economy is in shambles. Surveillance is about to become very lax and unaffordable. Farmers are risking imprisonment and even execution by bringing in illegal poultry. Culls cannot keep the virus out of any region. And now the chickens are not doing their duty and dying to warn us -- at least not according to the latest news coming out of China.

Open speculation from leading Chinese scientists regarding this "living chickens" theory leads me to believe that the government itself is stymied and this is how they are asking -- no, begging for outside help to solve the riddle. This collective shrugging of scientific shoulders from a country that is welling with pride and also within a couple of years of putting a Chinese man on the surface of the Moon is very telling.

So let's review these signs and portents.

Panasonic is not recanting its earlier plans; in fact, it is restating them and telling anyone who listens not to question their motives nor their methodology.

China has lost the handle on containing H5N1, according to the Time article. And the widespread geographic location of human cases is not assuring; it is downright troubling (thank you, Time).

Vietnam has also lost the ability to rein in illegal smuggling of poultry, usually from China.

Chickens are not dying in certain areas of China. But people are.

Human cases are abundant, compared to last year.

Pandemic money is in the US stimulus bill. Of course there are skateboard parks and a quadrillion condoms, but the presence of panflu monies in both versions was eyebrow-raising.

And the British government recently announced plans to double its antiviral stockpile with Relenza, and not Tamiflu, as the antiviral centerpiece (as I have advocated for two years).

These signs and portents may be the first real indications that the Pandemic Doomsday Clock is ticking. The countdown may have begun, and the cumulative weight of these separate events may have convinced both the Japanese government and Panasonic executives that the countdown has indeed begun; that the clock is no longer stuck at five minutes to midnight; and that the first outbreaks of bona-fide, H2H2H2H avian influenza are just weeks or months away.

It may have also served to convince the Chinese government to lay in additional supplies of their human bird flu vaccine, although to be honest I would rather take my chances with the virus.

We keep hearing that the WHO and others are emphatically saying there is no need to raise the pandemic threat level and that there are no outward signs that the virus has mutated. We don't know if this is true or not; not that we think anyone is lying, but it may take longer than a few days to look at the virus and make that pronouncement.

But the WHO protocol for changing the threat level ignores the holistic situation and should force us to question if a change in the virus itself is the best/only way to proceed with moving from Phase 3 to Phase 4.

Everyone needs to be renewed and refreshed and vigilant as heck right now. And we need to find more signs and portents. I am uncomfortably sure they are out there and will manifest themselves in due time.