CANBERRA has underestimated by almost two-thirds the share of swine flu patients ending up in intensive care in its pandemic modelling, as the virus continues to stretch the nation's health resources.
Fatalities among people testing positive to the flu strain passed 100 yesterday. About 20 per cent of those who have died were considered healthy before succumbing to the disease.
Chief Medical Officer Jim Bishop said the rate of emergency department visits and intensive care unit admissions for the disease had taken health authorities by surprise.
"There's a higher percentage of those who are hospitalised that end up in ICU (intensive care unit). We've modelled it at around 10 per cent and we're closer to the 27 per cent mark," he said.
The incidence of the new H1N1 strain in the community is tracking in line with the 2007 flu season, which was considered the worst in recent years, infecting around four out of every five people who test positive to influenza.
The strain it has imposed on the hospital system, however, is disproportionately high.
The number of people with flu-like illnesses going to the emergency departments had doubled and, in some jurisdictions, quadrupled, Dr Bishop said.
The disease was "particularly concerning" in the way it infected the lungs and caused respiratory distress, he noted.
But more active intervention, through anti-virals and extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) machines, had kept the death toll in check.
"The good news is that a lot of those people in ICUs are recovering well and more quickly than we had anticipated ... the early indication is that that's a successful approach," Dr Bishop said.
The annual death toll from seasonal flu strains normally runs into the thousands, partly because higher infection rates among the elderly.
The median age of death among seasonal flu victims is 83 years, compared to 56 for swine flu fatalities.
Dr Bishop refused to speculate on the likely final death toll from the pandemic, warning the government's modelling, based on seasonal strains, had its limitations because swine flu infection patterns in the northern hemisphere showed the virus survived beyond winter.
"We're not clear yet that the thing has peaked," he said.
Some 449 people across the nation were in hospital with swine flu yesterday, including 109 in intensive care.
The pandemic virus has infected around 29,000 Australians since the first case was detected here three months ago.
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