CDC: Usefulness of School Absenteeism Data for Predicting Influenza Outbreaks, United States

[Bolding in red is mine]
Volume 18, Number 8—August 2012

To the Editor: School closure has been proposed as a strategy for slowing transmission of pandemic influenza (1). Studies of influenza A(H1N1)pdm 2009 (pH1N1) suggested that early and sustained school closure might effectively reduce communitywide influenza transmission (2,3). However, empirical evidence identifying the optimal timing of school closures to effectively reduce disease transmission after an outbreak occurs is limited.

That school absenteeism data improve school-based disease surveillance and response has been suggested (4–6). In 2009, Sasaki et al. demonstrated that the pattern of influenza-associated school absenteeism in the days before an influenza outbreak predicted the outbreak course with high sensitivity and specificity (7). However, that study used absenteeism data from Japan, which are generally not applicable to the United States, because most US absenteeism data collected at the local level do not specify cause. Furthermore, few US jurisdictions collect electronic health data for students.

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Thus, non–disease-specific absenteeism data alone are of little use for school-based influenza surveillance. Use of all-cause absenteeism data cannot inform influenza mitigation policies, such as school dismissal, at the school or the school district levels. Not surprisingly, the influenza-specific absenteeism data from Japan were better able to predict an influenza outbreak than were our data because our data were not influenza specific. Other factors specific to the school system in Japan might have also played a role.

In the future, it might be beneficial for schools to collect causes of absenteeism, particularly if is it not feasible to electronically collect data on school nurse visits. Creation of school-based early warning systems for pandemic influenza remains a priority. In NYC, efforts to improve emergency department and primary care electronic medical record systems have been successful (8–10). Similar efforts to improve electronic health data collection and influenza-related absenteeism data in schools might yet demonstrate the usefulness of school-based surveillance systems.

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