[You can refer to the H3N2 Variant Information List articles posted on the right side-bar.]
January 15, 2013 - CIDRAP
Novel swine-origin variant H3N2 influenza (H3N2v) does not currently
pose a substantial pandemic risk, according to Canadian flu experts, but
that could change over time, according to a study in PLoS One.
The scientists estimated potential epidemic attack rates (ARs) based on
age-specific estimates of serosusceptibility and social interactions.
They used a contact network model established for Greater Vancouver to
estimate ARs for H3N2v, pandemic 2009 H1N1, and a former seasonal H3N2
strain. The model factored in typical flu characteristics, basic
reproduction number, social contacts, and age-specific seroprotection
rates (SPRs). The researchers determined an AR of 6% for H3N2v, meaning
that 6% of the population exposed would be infected, but the AR grew to
16% in kids 6 to 11 years old. If they modified the SPRs, however, H3N2v
ARs of 20% or higher were possible. The authors conclude, "If H3N2v
epidemics do occur,
overall community ARs are unlikely to exceed typical seasonal
influenza experience [which typically involves ARs of 5% to 15%].
However, risk assessment may change with time and depends crucially upon
the validation of epidemiological features of influenza."
Jan 11 PLoS One study