Avian Flu Diary Post:
With the confirmed case count nearing 50, and those numbers in all likelihood to rise, keeping track of individual cases, and outcomes, has become a demanding, and at times, frustrating job.
Gleaning data from press releases and news stories (which can vary in the type, and reliability, of data), flublogians around the world are trying various means to keep information straight and organized.
Aiding flu-literate journalists like Helen Branswell, Maggie Fox, Jason Gale, and Dr. Richard Besser and bloggers like Crof and Maryn McKenna, and myself, there’s a small army of (mostly volunteer) analysts crunching numbers and making charts available online.
Dr. Ian M. Mackay from the University of Queensland in Australia maintains the Virology Down Under website and blog, where he is keeps tabs of mew cases and analyzes the data (link).
As you can see by his terrific chart below, the dataset is beginning to get crowded. But the trend in onset dates revealed by this graphic provides a much better sense of how this outbreak is progressing. You’ll find more than just charts on the VDU H7N9 website, and so it is worth visiting every day.
Similarly, the newshounds on FluTrackers are continually scouring the Internet for new case reports, which Sharon Sanders uses to update their running list of confirmed and suspected cases.
2013 Human Case List for Confirmed and Suspected H7N9 Type Influenza*
#1 - Man, 87, onset date February 19, died March 4 - Shanghai Death+ #2 - Man, 27, onset date February 19, died March 10 - possible pork contact - Shanghai Death #3 - Woman, 35, onset date March 15, hospitalized in critical condition - possible poultry contact - Chuzhou City, Anhui Province Death++ #4 - Woman, 45, onset date March 19, hospitalized March 27 - poultry culler - Jiangning district of Nanjing, Jiangsu province #5 - Woman, 48, onset date March 19, hospitalized March 30 - Shuyang county of Suqian City, Jiangsu province #6 - Man, 83, onset date March 20 - hospitalized March 29 - Wujiang district of Suzhou, Jiangsu province Death #7 - Woman, 32, onset date March 21 - hospitalized March 28 - Binhu district of Wuxi City, Jiangsu province #8 - Man, 38, onset date March 7, hospitalized March 18, died March 27 - reported to be a cook - Taicang, Zhejiang province Death #9 - Man, 67, onset date March 25, hospitalized March 25, died April 2? Hangzhou, Zhejiang province #10 - Man, 64, onset date hospitalized March 29, Zhejiang province Death #11 - Man, 48, onset date March 28, engaged in chickens and ducks transportation work - Shanghai Death #12 - Woman, 67, onset date March 22, hospitalized on March 25 in critical condition - Shanghai #13 - Woman, 52, onset date March 27, died on April 3 - Shanghai Death #14 - Child, 4, onset date March 31, mild case. Shanghai #15 - Woman, 61, onset date March 20, from a retirement home - in critical condition Qinhuai District, Nanjing, Jiangsu province #16 - Man, 79, onset date March 21, from a retirement home. Qinhuai District in Nanjing, Jiangsu province, in critical condition #17 - Man, 74, onset date March 28, hospitalized March 3, farmer, died April 11 Shanghai Death note
#18 - Man, 66, onset date March 29, hospitalized April 2, in treatment - from a retirement home, Shanghai #19 - Man, 59, onset on March 25, hospitalized on March 30 Shanghai #20 - Man, 67 - onset on March 29. Hospitalized on March 30 - in treatment - Shanghai #21 - Man, 55, onset date March 28, hospitalized April 1 in stable condition - poultry worker - Anhui province #22 - Age 64, onset date: April 1. Hospitalized on April 7. - Shanghai Death #23 - Man, 85, onset date March 28, hospitalized April 8 in critical condition, retirement home, Nanjing Shimonosek Jiangsu province #24 - Woman, 25, pregnant, onset date: March 30. - In critical condition. Zhenjiang City area, Jiangsu province #25 - Woman, 51, onset date March 13, hospitalized, Huzhou City, Zhejiang Province #26 - Man, 79, onset date March 29, hospitalized in critical condition, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province #27 - Man, 62, onset date April 1, hospitalized April 5, retired Shanghai #28 - Man, 77, onset date April 3, hospitalized April 7, retired Shanghai #29 - Man, 65, hospitalized - a farmer Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province #30 - Man, 70, onset date March 29, Wuxi Huishan, Jiangsu province #31 - Man, 74, onset date April 2, Jiangyin City, Wuxi City, Jiangsu province #32 - Woman, 76, onset date April 1, hospitalized April 5, Shanghai #33 - Woman, 81, hospitalized April 4, farmer , Shanghai #34 - Man, 31, chef, Yangzhou City, Jiangsu province #35 - Man, 56, teacher, Suzhou Industrial Park, Jiangsu province #36 - Man, 74, onset date March 31, hospitalized April 5, died April 11 retiree, Shanghai Death #37 - Woman, 83, onset date April 2, hospitalized April 7, Shanghai #38 - Man, 68, onset date April 4, hospitalized April 9, Shanghai #39 - Man, 53, onset date April 3, hospitalized April 10, Shanghai #40 - Man, 86, onset date April 3, hospitalized April 6, Shanghai #41 - Man, 66, onset date April 8, hospitalized April 9, Hangzhou, Zhejiang province #42 - Man, 74, onset date April 6, hospitalized April 11, Hangzhou, Zhejiang province #43 - Woman, 54, onset date April 6, hospitalization April 12, Huzhou, Zhejiang province #44 - Child, 7, hospitalized April 11 Shunyi District Beijing #45 - Woman, 77, Nanjing former Baixia District, Jiangsu province #46 - Man, 72, Changshu, Jiangsu province #47 - Man, 56, onset date April 1, hospitalized April 4; his wife was confirmed positive on April 4, Shanghai #48 - Man , 65, onset date April 3, hospitalized April 9. Zhejiang Province #49 - Man , 38, onset date April 6, hospitalized April 11. Zhejiang Province
Laidback Al on FluTrackers also updates charts and maps on this outbreak on this thread.
Another graphical representation of cases, along with links to individual news reports, can be found on Healthmap’s H7N9 page.
And the ECDC continues to provide almost daily epidemiological updates (April 13th edition), including charts and maps, on this emerging virus. Check the ECDC home page for new updates.
There are dozens of newshounds on flu forums like FluTrackers and The Flu Wiki, scores of people on twitter, and likely hundreds working behinds the scenes at public health organizations like Hong Kong’s CHP, the World Health Organization, the CDC, China’s CDC, and the ECDC who make it their job to keep the numbers straight, and the information flowing.
Admittedly, given the non-stop internet news cycle, and the leapfrogging of updates, it can still be difficult to keep abreast of the latest case counts.
But without the efforts and generosity of the people mentioned above, and many more like them, it would probably be impossible.
At some point, if this outbreak grows substantially, it may become impractical to keep track of each individual case.
Nevertheless , the work being done right now is invaluable to those of us trying to make sense of the situation. And so a tip of my hat, and a world of thanks, to all those who are pitching in to keep the information rolling.